Man United v Newcastle – before I even look at the stats, I had a dodgy feeling about this one. Man United are soon going to be under pressure in the league I think, although every pundit says otherwise. I basically just checked if Van Persie is playing and if not I was going to leave it alone as without him I think its possible we could see an upset here as Newcaste are in growing form lately. As it turns out, not only Van Persie is missing, but so is Wayne Rooney who I think creates many goals if he doesn’t score them lately. Without those two, I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole! Obviously they are still the better team, but its much closer without their best two players up front.
Deportivo V Alaves – Well looking at league positions (top v bottom near enough) this looks like a cracking trade at a very cheap price. But have to reluctantly ignore it, the goal stats for home team are just not good enough despite my hunch they will blast the away team.
Dortmund – another avoider – they are next to each other in the league so it could be a tight affair, just got to ignore this one too.
St Etienne – yet another dodgy one. its cheap so very tempting, and in the old days I would trade this as I do expect a home win, but the stats suggest caution is needed, so why bother?
Napoli v Udinese – Well if I am totally honest, this is really so close to call I should just leave it, but I can’t! Its mainly the away team recent form which worries me:
As you can see, even against the league leaders Juventus, they only conceded 1 goal and that was in the 90th minute. This is scary. But the rest of the stats are great, so I am going to chance it for a smaller bet (doing smaller bets lately) at £100 lay the draw. Its not too pricey at 4.1-4.2 so whilst I hope it wont lose, if it does it wont be a bank breaker.
Liverpool v West Ham – Well West Ham keep a very good defence, conceding very few goals. This is the only negative. As for the positives, well how many do you want?! With Suarez on form (best form of any player in the world I think), this could be a 5-0 game. It’s high priced, so there is risk but I am in at 5.7 for £100
Dundee v Hearts – Definitely trading this one.
Dunfermline v Forfar – this is a nice cheap LTD in my view, but the volume is low so i can’t risk trading with my stakes as an exit may be tricky until i see more money in the market which will happen as the game gets underway. I will check this later and if volume comes up, will be trading this one
That’s it for today. fingers crossed