I received an email today from a reader asking:
“Looking at the Chelsea v Newcastle game for my first bet. The draws currently sitting a little high at 7.6, do you think it’s worth backing inplay if the odds come down to around 5’s? How long into the game would this usually take?
I replied, and felt it may be of use to more than a few of you, so here is my reply:
“I wouldn’t touch anything priced that high, just too much potential loss. Whilst I am sure Chelsea will annihilate Newcastle, your liability is just too high on odds like that which means that if for some reason Chelsea don’t score until the 70th minute, you could lose a fortune, and that is possible. for me odds over 6 are a no no and ideally less than 5.5.
The only other way I would trade it if I absolutely had to (i have not looked at stats, but knowing Chelsea its possible I would do this) is to trade differently. Instead of laying at the kick off and exiting if no goals when the odds get down to 2, I would get in at kick off but give myself only until Half time or a specific price on the odds which I would decide before the game, so for example in at 7.6 and out at 4, which would probably get you near enough to 40 minutes or so, which (CHECK STATS) is probably enough for Chelsea to score at least 1 goal. Just remember, the higher the odds at the start, the further it can fall and cost you heavily is the unexpected happens, i.e. Chelsea red card and penalty to Newcastle puts them 1-0 in front, you could find it very hard to get out without a huge loss if that happened. may be worth the risk, i haven’t looked at stats, but just be aware the higher the odds on entry, the higher the risk”