One trade today

It’s a strange old day. Some absolutely ridiculously overpriced draws today. Villareal for example, I would usually lay Villareal at those silly odds, for first 15 minutes when  they rarely score. There are various other examples of silly prices today.
Two possibles are AZ and Ajax. I decided against Ajax, again because I think the odds are too high, but AZ looks worth a shot so I will be laying the draw there.

Today may be a day of in play opportunities, often when you get days with silly prices, you can make some lovely green from just taking advantage of in play value bets. For example if Villareal came out and scored a quick early goal, or two even, and you can lay £100 at 1.15 or 1.02, there is a clear value bet there looking at the form and stats. They are on a TERRIBLE run of home form, so instead of getting involved before the KO, I will just keep flashscores open  (google it if you don’t know about it) and wait for pings which interest me, in particular I will be keeping an eye out for 2-0 leads by teams where I expect a goal or two back, then I will lay with very low liability for a 2 or 3 times green vs my liability when the stats-based outcome happens. It’s a common method of mine, and one where you don’t risk money until an unlikely event has taken place in a game, then you get in expecting the “normal” outcome to play out.


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