Derby County home form looks good for a LTD around half time. I am ordering 3.05 Nothing else of interest today., lots of close calls like Juventus and Monaco but many of these borderline games are close affairs where both teams will likely play it safe, best avoided I think. Some horses went well. more on that another time   …

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Just goes to show, stats are the only thing you can use reliably over the long term. But BOY can they be trumped by real life events sometimes, usually when I have money at stake! So home team scored ONE goal in last FOUR league games, and against the mighty Dortmund, they have just managed TWO goals?! Pretty amazing stats! I am sticking with Dortmund, if I wasn’t in already, I would be laying home team at 1.5 now! …

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No trades today, not for want of trying!

I looked in depth at today’s long list, but nothing is a safe enough bet in my book. Cruzeira (Brazil) looked moderately tempting, home teams have a huge advantage over there, but I would want to see odds nearer 3.2-3.4 to get involved there. If I am about I may watch the game and get in if its a slow start. Sorry, pretty dead of late, but will all come at once soon, always the way!