Ok, this time of year we dont expect much, but Saturday’s can often find something worth having a go at. Not today though. Seattle almost made me click, but yanks can’t play “soccer” so that just doesn’t interest me to even look if stats exist!
I SO nearly layed the remain vote, it was 1.18 on Betfair when I looked but I was going out and too busy to care much. But no question that was an ENORMOUS VALUE BET. 1.18 while not one single talking head could call it either way. It was a coin toss, everyone knew that, the result proved it. So what the hell is 1.18 all about?! I should have a grand on that at least, wish I had now but that’s the way it goes I suppose. And I wouldn’t have left it to a bet. I watched the market through the night during the results, and I felt pretty damn sure there was some inside info going on. I had live pictures on of the news as well as various websites reporting instantly as the results came in. It was interesting to see the odds JUMP wildly, BEFORE any news was announced, and then the news came showing the reason for the jump. As Sunderland vote came in, the price jumped from (if I remember right) 1.4 to 1.57, but it jumped before the news was announced. Sounds like some slimey git made a few quid there! (Would I do the same given the chance? No comment :D) Anyway, that’s where I would have traded out at least partially. 1.18 to 1.57 is a huge chunk of cash with a decent lay on. Actually what I would have done is traded out my risk, but left all the green on the leave side. As far as I could see, it was looking likely even early on that a leave was on the cards. The types of areas which were borderline (but expected to be strong remain), and the fact that the working man vote (Sunderland for example) was so strongly in favour of leave, it was a no brainer from where i was siting. In fact to be really honest, I should have laid at 1.5 as I had an hour or two to take that price whilst I was certain it was going to be a leave win, or at the very least an extremely close call, so there was loads more room for a profitable lay trade, but having seen it at 1.18 and not bothered, I wasn’t getting involved later. A good example of cutting off your nose to spite your face there, not a good trading mentality that either, but just being honest 🙂