Monday 26 September

Slightly interesting day today, will get to that in a sec

First things first, one LTD trade.

Norrkoping v Djurgardens 6pm – Stats here – This looks a good trade. Home form is nothing short of awesome when it comes to scoring goals. Away team’s form is pretty dire. Priced in mid 4s, which I think is good value. if this was a Spanish game with similar stats it would be priced closer to 5.5 – 6 !

But what on earth is going on with this Romanian game? ……

romanian football statsWhat I can’t understand is the price on Betfair. Home team are 1.58 odds on favourites, the draw is over 4. this is more like a back the draw than a lay the draw, or maybe a lay the home team trade or similar. Perhaps one good way to trade it would be to wait and see, hopefully the home team will score first, the odds on the draw (based on SPs) will go to silly heights at which point I would either back the draw or lay the home team then for a tiny liability. As usual its more than possible the home team could win the game 5-0, but the stats suggest a very different story, and the value is in the stats, not in guessing or looking into a crystal football! The two teams score virtually the same average goals per game, but the home team concedes more and has had no clean sheets at all. Just an interesting one, maybe one to watch for the beginners and look for a low liability laying opportunity somewhere for some juicy green.

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