Thursday 27 October

I have come down with this damn virus again so I expect the next few days to a week will be limited time at the desk here, just so you know if I go quiet for a bit. Another strong course of antibiotics began today which perked me up enough to sit here for half an hour and I had a quick look at todays small coupon, and one thing is of interest so I thought I would mentioned it quickly…. Gent v Standard – Normally a no trade as they are sat next to each other in the league. However Gent are immensely strong at home, and their goal …

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Monday 24 October

Only two games I looked at in any depth, Djurgardens and Braga. Djurgardens is a definite no trade. Braga v Chaves has some qualities, they never lose to Chaves (historically speaking of course!) The price is cheap, the few goals Chaves score come at least half the time in the last 15 minutes, which offers a certain amount of protection to a LTD trade which obviously favours the home team and doesn’t want away team goals. The stats could definitely be stronger but they are good. The main negative is Braga’s recent form where they have struggled against some similar quality sides to Chaves. The overriding factor is the price …

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Sunday 23 October

Eintracht Braunschweig v Furth – Laying Under 2.5 goals shortly, around 1.45. Pure risk reward trade, I think there should be plenty of goals  but will remove liability after first goal if one comes, and wait for second to green my original liability, rest left to full bet until FT. Flamengo v Corinthians – Brazil is one of those countries I am a bit more careful with. This game looked like a trade to me at first, but on second thoughts I have decided to give it a miss. Away team scored heavy in last two games, I do expect a good home win based purely on goal stats, but …

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P.S.

I am leaving a few hundred lay on U2.5 in AEK game, will remove liability after a goal and maybe some green, or may hold for a second goal, 15 minutes left and there is more than 1.02 chance of a goal I think, not much more, but more 🙂

Update

Well Galatasaray was a great example of how stats are only useful “most” of the time, not ALL of it! I am glad I dodged that, what a messy trade that could have been. And this is so often the case in my trading experience with Greek and Turkish games. Maybe it’s pure coincidence but whenever I have traded them I often seemed to land on these ones, the ones which just go totally against the stats and probabilities, and massively against the gambling market and odds. Their stats come from real games, so it’s clear that I must just have a bad experience of them, but as today has …

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Saturday 22 October

Galatasaray v Trabz – Slightly tricky one this, tricky as far as deciding whether to trade or not I mean. Plus points: Fantastic green home form card Lovely red away form card (league games only), with not one single goal scored in last 4 games, but 15 goals conceded in those 4 games! Big distance between the teams on the table, a real mismatch Gala unbeaten at home this season Greek and Turkish games can have huge support at home games, especially for teams like Galatasaray Away team hasn’t won a game at home, score no goals on average and concede 2.67! Negatives: It’s Turkey! anecdotal evidence this, but in …

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