Big shortlist today, will work my way through as I type this….
Valencia v Madrid – Well at first I wasn’t that keen and obviously being an away LTD always means I am very reluctant to take it especially in Spain where home sides get massive support from the crowd and this can have a big impact on the game. But the stats are still very tempting. I am torn between laying it now at a very reasonable price (and either team going ahead, certainly if 2-0 ahead would see a nice green trade). I think since the shortlist is big today I will cancel that idea and just look at it at 60 minutes, if the game is drawing at 60 minutes (0-0,1-1,2-2 etc) then I will be laying the draw. Actually I have just seen the odds on Under 2.5 goals, around 1.65 already. That strikes me as a bit odd as I think there will be a goal or two here (never looking for a full bet, just 1 or 2 goals to green up). I may also check those odds, if they get to 1.25 I will just lay U2.5 for a 25/75 risk v reward trade, trading out liability after the first goal, greening up (hopefully) after the second. I am mixing methods here and haven’t explained my U/O2.5 methods on the site yet, but I will soon.
Lyon v St Etienne – A possibly cagey affair, or Lyon will score a handful of goals, not sure until I see the approach to the game. It’s not a standard LTD by any means, the away side have too tight a defence. But if it’s 0-0 when the odds on draw get down below 3 (ideally around 2.8) then I will be laying.
Celta Vigo v Barcelona – This could go crazy from the off but being an away LTD and priced at 5 it’s always a costly one to take if it starts off cagey. Not like Barca I know, but it’s a new season and it’s still early doors. If it gets to 30 minutes in and still 0-0 or 1-1, or if the odds hit 3.9 on the draw (whichever comes first, if game is level) I will be laying the draw.
Nice v Lorient – Interesting one this. How can Nice beat the league leaders 4-0 in their last home game, but not long before, only manage a draw 1-1 against 3rd from bottom Rennes? this suggests inconsistent, so it could be a losing trade (more so than usual) but given the price at 4, I think this is too cheap to leave alone so I will be trading it from KO as a standard LTD.
Atalanta v Napoli – LTD @ half time or draw odd of 3 whichever comes first, if goals level.