Wednesday 30 November

At desk late today. i am laying the draw at Zenit at 3.25 odds (30 mins in). The only other game which looked interesting on goal stats was Sturm Graz, I liked the look of it a lot but the last 3 home games unfortunately make it too risk in case they are entering a bad patch of form. It’s a shame as I really fancy it, but I have to say no as I will kick myself if it’s a loser since there is a reason to reject it. if they go 2 goals down I will lay the away team, but other than that I think I will …

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Exiting

A couple of important points here… when exiting this method its important to manually enter the exit stake, not click Cash Out button. This is because there is usually a wide gap between the two sides of the book, between back and lay prices i mean, and that can hand back a lot of profit. This game looks to have bottomed out around 2.84 and quickly started rising then. This is how to see at what point the punters believe the leading team may now actually go on to win, if you watch the queues of money very closely you can actually see this market realisation take place, and that’s …

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BTD

Just a quick follow up to explain a bit more of what makes this an ideal back the draw… (and I am still trying to remember some of the rules!) Above – Very low activity = good for no more goals, or maybe one from home team. Possession 80% in Sheffield’s hands, makes another away goal (our only risk) look highly unlikely (not impossible of course!) Below – Walsall average 0.67 goals per game. Good. Concede more than 1, good. Score mostly in 1st half, good. Sheffield score most in second half, good, and score 1.56 per game, good. All in all, it shouldn’t fail should it? 😀 But of …

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Sheffield

I am backing the draw in this game now. Not a method I have had chance to explain yet, but basically : Stats suggest Walsall score very few away from home. Home team is much stronger on stats. So 2-1 ways to win. If no more goals, the draw price should keep dropping until around 60-70 minutes = green. If Sheffield score as they should = green (unless it happens immediately in next five mins). Obviously the risk is walsall scoring again. but thats an acceptable risk and this method has a high strike rate, i rarely do it as i am usualy laying the draw in games like this, …

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Tuesday 29 November

Sheffield – Not good enough stats to justify the price of 5 from KO. but half time will interest me if drawing Copenhagen – Opposite to above. The stats look good enough to justify a much higher price than 4.6, more like 5.6 which I am sure it would be if this was a game in a bigger league like Spain or Italy. Well worth a trade from KO here. SCR Altach v Reid – small league, big stats! The only slight downer is the late scoring possibilities, but going by who has beaten who and the goal stats, this looks ridiculously cheap at 4ish.   …

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Any other score?!

2-4 It was looking like being a case of PSV coming back strong, or trying so hard to do so that they left their goal open. clearly the latter is the case! Still, some recovered green and a small loss to end a day that could have been a small green day, no biggie either way really, but a good learning experience for some I am sure. Easy to get in a mess in games like this, as the stronger a team is, the more they push to win what should be “their” game, and this often does lead to results like this which look like major shocks on the …

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1-2

I could see that goal coming, but I was happy for either team to score as this has the feeling of one of those “any other score” type games! I traded out for small loss at 1-2, and may re-enter at 2-2, but it could go 1-3 which would offer a nice low lay on Oss possibly. Important not to get hung up on PSV winning as they may not, just have to follow the stats and protect the bank. Protecting the bank at the moment means getting out for a small loss and looking for a decent re-entry if one comes up, but not if it doesnt! . Just …

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