Tuesday 29 November

Sheffield – Not good enough stats to justify the price of 5 from KO. but half time will interest me if drawing

Copenhagen – Opposite to above. The stats look good enough to justify a much higher price than 4.6, more like 5.6 which I am sure it would be if this was a game in a bigger league like Spain or Italy. Well worth a trade from KO here.

in play football

SCR Altach v Reid – small league, big stats! The only slight downer is the late scoring possibilities, but going by who has beaten who and the goal stats, this looks ridiculously cheap at 4ish.



Tuesday 29 November — 20 Comments

  1. Hi Tim

    Yes I looked at both Sheffield & Copenhagen games and thought the same thing, so I bought in at 4.6 for Copenhagen

    I did the Lok. Plovdiv Vs Montana in the Bulgarian league which is 1-0 at HT

  2. Great advice on Copenhagen Tim! I got greedy and did not trade out after the first goal – I waited until after the second goal was scored! More than makes up for the small loss on Jong PSV yesterday.

    • haha. greed is a killer James!
      waiting for second goal, certainly for 5-10 minutes is not a major risk in my opinion and can often add 100-130% more profit. but it can also obviously cause a burner now and then. horses for courses, each to his own, etc.
      i was out after 1 goal. if it had gone 1-1 i would have been back in for a second bite of the apple, but you just go take the whole apple for yourself why dont ya. haha

  3. “Greed is a killer” – never a truer word spoken! I don’t usually wait for the second goal but based on those stats I thought it was worth the risk. I was feeling hungry so it just had to be the full apple!

    • “based on stats” – in that case agreed, good move! if someone waits for a second goal because they “need” or “want” more green, thats when its a killer. if you think the game stats suggest waiting for a second, go for it. as you did, nice one!

    • Just for future ref James, not sure if I have mentioned it before but….
      if you get a game like that and you have held for two goals, or sometimes even with 1 goal, if the home team price comes down around 1.1 or lower, try exiting your LTD by LAYING the HOME team instead of backing the draw. play with the figures in BF browser until your green on home team and draw are the same. You will lose a few pennies (virtually nothing) but you will have a very tasty green on the away team, hundreds of quid minimum. Its very rare, but I have seen more than my fair share of games 2-0 at HT ending 2-3, and they make for a good party if you exit that way 🙂

  4. That’s a very interesting strategy Tim. Am I correct in thinking that you would you still keep most of your green even if the home team romp it and finish 4-0? Maths was never my strong suit! If that is the case then I will definitely try it next time!!

    • Absolutely yes. I am not great at maths either, thats why LTD trading is one of the few trading methods I use the betfair browser for as its easier than with software. Next time you are already in a LTD trade (i.e. a lay bet matched on draw) try playing with the figures, dont submit any bets, just pretend you are ordering a lay on home team and set the odds to 1.03 like it was there, and you will play with the stake until you level up the draw and home green, but the away green will be massive. I can’t say exactly without calculating it and it obviously varies based on the odds, but at 1.03 you would be getting at least 98-99% of the same green as you would normally, on home or draw, but the away team would net you ten times as much (guessing). I have seen them come in a few times, its great when they do, rare but almost a completely free chance for a nice windfall.

    • Just posted a new post and added some info to it just now. Basically I wouldn’t lay a team at Walsall’s odds, just too high liability if they score again. But to BACK the draw, means the max I can lose is my back stake which is better risk, but more chances to win, as the time decay banks some green too. hope that makes some sense. i do plan to explain this better some time when i can

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