In Play Trade

Bani Yas v Al Nasr (UAE) – 0-2

I am laying Al Nasr at 1.08. Small stakes, will add more if it goes 0-3. Just like yesterday this is a very very speculative trade, a throwaway job, so the losses need to be pocket change. It could end 0-5 or 0-10. But it could end 1-2 or 2-2 as well. I will let you check the stats, but last time these teams met in the same location, it ended 1-2, and the home team usually scores 1.5 goals per game so its well worth it at such a low price. But its not one to go heavy on as the away team score 2.5 goals per game. If i had to bet the scoreline from the stats I would guess at 1-3 or 0-3, just as a guide to how low my confidence is here, but its higher than the probabilities implied by 1.08


In Play Trade — 9 Comments

    • See how much fun everyone is having while their money is at risk in a trade? This is useful. THIS is how you should feel in ALL trades in an ideal world! Yes I know, I would be a bit less relaxed in a bigger trade like a KO LTD, but it is still a very valid point. For anyone who sits biting their nails in a trade, you are OVER STAKING. Trading should be as much like this as possible…..

      In and happy to be in.
      Happy to lose, because the reasons to be in are sound and you would do the same again tomorrow, win or lose.
      If it wins, smile.
      If it loses, smile just the same because you know most times you do “this” the result will be green.
      If you can’t say that then either you are staking too big for your bank, or you are in a trade you shouldn’t be in because you are not confident enough that it’s got valid reasons backing it up.

      The more relaxed you can be in a trade, the less emotion will grab you when it loses, and that emotion is the biggest danger to anyone trying go full time at trading, because that emotion almost always causes mistakes, chasing, angry trading etc etc.

      Before every trade ask yourself if you’re happy to lose your liability on the trade. If you’re not, don’t take it. Some people I say this to reply “then I wouldn’t trade anything”. The answer to that is “then you are not in a position to be risking any money trading at all” or “you haven’t got a method you have any confidence in” which means the same thing, shouldn’t be trading!

      Confidence comes from a consistent pattern of good results, which easily swallow up any losses. After a while you laugh at your losers and just think of it as paying a few bills on your business, nothing more than that.

      This type of trade needs to only 1 in 5 or even 1 in 10 depending on odds, to be profitable. So get used to laughing at the loss and make sure they are losses which you can barely feel. These are NOT designed to be banker which double your bank in a day, you are just aiming for a nice 3-5% of the trading bank made on it, but even 1% is fine, and 10% if get luck and a 0-2 game goes 2-2 as mine did the other day, that’s just a nice bonus but don’t expect anything more than a safe few percent, which means keep stakes small and expect few winners but green over the year. 🙂

      • P.S. I also should mention something else…..

        When the trade is taken at 0-2, on odds of around 1.07-1.1, this is aiming for a 1-2 scoreline which will usually see a 20-30 tick increase for banking some green.

        When it goes 0-3 as they quite often do, I always get in again at 1.02 usually. BUT PLEASE NOTE – this is NOT because I am still thinking the home team will win or bring it back to a draw. The second trade is aiming to recoup the losses of the first trade, and a bit of green, but not much. So don;t go piling in, on a game which is 0-3 as the odds of a home goal are far reduced, many teams stop attacking once 3 goals up and sit back a bit, which means its harder to score against them. So that second trade is looking to take advantage of the (smaller) rise in odds from 1.02 to probably between 1.12 and 1.2 (depending on how much time left in the game). So if today’s game had gone 1-3, considering how late it was in the game, I would have exit and fully greened. if there as more than 25 minutes left, I would have removed liability so i could lose nothing, and then decided whether to green up or not, but the first step would be to use that home goal as a loss fixer.

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