Thursday 15 December

Well yesterday turned out to be worth getting involved. I had a takeaway and didn’t stay in the office, but after the Newcastle goal I came to the office to exit 2/3 trades and by the time I sat down there was a goal in the third game. I laid the draw in all three before kick-off in the end, so I just greened up all three at once and went back to my prawn  crackers!

today looks a very quiet day based on the short coupon I think there are still things to be done:

Genoa versus Fiorentina –  this is one of those strange ones really. Not a traditional LTD, Genoa are lower in the league than Fiorentina but they certainly seem to score goals, even against league leaders Juventus they score 3. Fiorentina seem to manage two goals per game as well. the most important point here is the price, at sub 3.0 before kick-off I think there is an awful lot of upside here and very little downside. At that price we don’t care who takes the lead so long as somebody does and I think that is likely, certainly in the huge window of time that the trade will have to run. I will be exiting after a goal from either side, if it goes 2-0 to either team I might consider a lay,  if it goes 1-1 I might consider laying the draw again. It’s one of those games where watching the play will be important, and also one of those where a green could be achieved quickly but thrown away by chasing trade after trade, so some discipline will definitely be useful here. N.B. See comment from Karim below this post.

Coventry versus Sheffield United –  at sub 4.0 I am half tempted to trade this from the kick-off, but the safer option is to hope for a level scoreline at half-time and trade it from then which is what I will do.


Thursday 15 December — 9 Comments

    • Thanks Lee, this all looks very odd. the prices on U/O 0.5,1.5,3.5 are out of whack. Some opportunities there for the mathematicians i think! Just running out here so cant do much with it right this minute and havent looked at stats to see if neither team score any goals whic could exlain draw price. If not then this could be a smelly game!

        • Excellent well done Lee, opportunity knocks!
          Its a very strange one, even more strange being a cup game with no decent stats available. I am not being tempted to lay OFI as I can’t be sure this is a smelly game, not sure enough to risk money like that anyway, but i wont be surprised to see this end 1-1. If they go 2-0 up i may have a small dabble just as a punt. those odds were so low before kick off, it is really weird

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