3 Options

I coiuld see Lyon goal coming a mile off but didn’t have time to do anything, no harm done, there are three options in my view here, more actually…

1, Exit for a few ticks loss. wait and see. if 1-1, LTD again. if 0-2, lay Lyon.

2. Exit and back draw (I wouldn’t advise here as i think more goals soon but in some games it can work nicely as time decay makes draw come down, and if it goes 1-1 after HT you can get a sudden nice green to boost your time decay green. again not advised here but worth mentioning for future reference)

3. Stay in. Another goal from Lyon and its green. A goal from home team (fairly soon) and probably wont drop much, so back to where you are, not much lost, .

I have chosen option 1 today although 3 would be my normal approach. I may have to shoot out soon so would rather be out of the market for now in case i get a phone call and have to run. This game looks a great one for any football fan!


3 Options — 26 Comments

    • Leaving Genoa alone. 50 50 job but odds are not 50 50 and by the time they are (2.0) it will no longer be 5050 job so cant see a value entry here
      laid lyon small and will lay again if 0-2 as i think they are overbet due to red card. small stakes as obvious risks

  1. I was hoping Genoa were going to be 0-0 at HT and then the LTD would have been a much nicer price – less risk, more reward. They also seem to score most of their goals in the second half. Not sure if they have more than one goal in them so won’t be touching them now.

    • Yes that’s a good point. Better to say no and wait for a favourable scoreline as that means more value, and if you stick to holding out for best value over the long term your bank will appreciate it and show the results of being selective like that. Exactly same I am not sure if they have another goal in them, I am not sure enough to risk those prices anyway. I will be surprised if they dont win it, but if they do it is most likely to be late. I could be tempted to get involved late, but there is little value in late LTDs really without a bit of luck on your side, the value window is tiny and odds collapse quickly, and thats assuming the teams dont decide a goal each and point each is “good enough for today” which many teams do! All in all, tempters are there to be resisted, not traded!

    • It’s a very interesting thing about trading. People often think a green trade means a correct trade, and a red one means an incorrect one. Actually in my experience the opposite is true 10-15% of the time, sometimes more.

      It’s one of the things that makes trading so hard on the psyche. Winning money feels good, which releases all those chemicals telling us we “did good” when often we didn’t, and if we keep doing the wrong things and getting greens for it, its deadly for the long term prospects of success. I got to the point I enjoyed taking a heavy red when I made what I knew was a sketchy decision. This is why someone on a lucky streak is destined for disaster, the casino theory, why they love to see big winners. That person will give it all back BUT more, and all those who witnessed it will follow suit.
      A good decision in trading is not judged by red or green, except over the long term. So we have to find other things to base good and bad decisions on, and that can only be value, probabilities and statistics. The rest is for gamblers 🙂

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