Some early thoughts for today. I am out this afternoon so not sure what time I will be home, hopefully early enough to be involved in some of these:
Hoffenheim – 30 minute LTD – ideally I want to see some of the game first.
Hertha Berlin – Tempted to take it from KO at a reasonable price. But it could be a late game as far as goals are concerned. Would ideally want to watch first 10 minutes, maybe more if not impressed. Aim to LTD when it gets going, or if it doesn’t get going in first half, a LTD at 60 minutes or more likely by then a Lay Unders (1.5 or 2.5) may be more attractive, depending on the run of play and the odds on offer. If the draw is down around 2.0 by 60-65 minutes (and level) then a LTD to final whistle may be best option.
Benfica – I am sick of seeing these overpriced Portuguese games. It’s time to take advantage of it, just annoying me too much now! yes of course its Benfica, WOW WOW WOW, but no, a look at stats suggests this will be a tight game. The away team will be cagey as hell and protecting their goal with everything they have, and they have a reasonable defence. Benfica of course could score early, but I say that every time as its a known constant, but it so rarely happens in Portuguese games I am going to put some money where my mouth is this time. Various options: Back draw for 20-30 minutes. Lay Benfica for same period, or longer dripping out stake gradually. Back 0-0 scoreline for same period or longer again, which is huge at 20-1. Finally lay Over 2.5 goals at a slightly concerning 1.7, but…. the chance of 3 goals in this game is much lower than the chance of 1 or 2. So I think this is the best option, laying O2.5 for 20-30 minutes then green up and wait. If Under2.5 gets down to 1.25 which will be around 70 mins if no goals, I will then lay that (or poss LTD) for a late goal. But if I lay U2.5 it will be small stake (been burned too many times by 0-0s in P) with a bit more added at 1.13 and a bit more at 1.07. It could be 3-0 at HT, but Rio are a respectable team (as much as any Portuguese team is respectable anyway!) and if Benfica go 2-0 up early on, I may lay them at what will be a ridiculous 1.02 probably, as Rio could pinch one especially near the end.
Standard Liege – I liked the look of this, if it weren’t for the last two away games by Lokoren which were decent away wins. My approach here will be LTD at HT if level, until 75 minutes.
Eupen v Club Brugge – This is priced all wrong in my opinion. I can see it being low scoring early, or Eupen actually going ahead after HT if not before. I will either back the draw or lay Brugge, probably lay Brugge as that may drift quite quickly if no goals in first 20-30 which would be my exit. if they go ahead and priced below 1.25 before 55 mins, I will lay them again as I fancy Eupen to give them a run for their money especially late on.
Lyon v Angers – Another overpriced one I think. Could back 0-0 for first 15mins, or lay Lyon or back draw. I wouldn’t lay Lyon as i dont see Angers scoring in first 15 so no extra benefit there. Actually looking at it in more detail I am not sure there is enough value here so cancel that, they could get an early one, would need to be watching and not sure I will be able to. Instead I think I will leave it and if its 0-0 or 1-1 at 30 mins I will LTD just until HT and 5 minutes into second half (as odds can rise at HT which can often give a 5 min free window to extend trade into second half, plus the team talk effect of course)
The Spanish Cup can take a royal jump as far as I am concerned, or a good system might be to find the most unlikely outcome you can and back it. haha, joking of course.
Thats my thoughts for the day. Hopefully home in time to take action on the above.