Just to show how easy it is to overlook one thing, and how important that is when approaching things like I do, i.e. looking for ANY reason to reject a trade…
Oostende v Eupen – I looked at the goal stats and form quite quickly and it looks great:
2.5 goals per game scored by home team, 2.5 goals per game conceded by away team. Great home form, crap away form, looks a peach doesn’t it. So after it went 0-2 I wondered if I had missed something, not necessarily as footie goes like this sometimes as we all know, but I thought I would check again. And I did miss something..
So last time Eupen beat em at home. Before that Oostende won by one measly goal. Before that Eupen beat them twice at home and once away, and the other two are no score draws. Despite how long ago many of these games were, they are a clear indication of a POSSIBLE problem here, maybe Derby type effect, but whatever the cause, Oostende have a checkered history against Eupen. That, if I had spotted it, would have been a perfectly valid reason to leave this one alone, especially on such a busy day. I will give myself a bogwash and carry on. So, carrying on…..
The final pic worth looking at is this one…
So… basically I will put all my current red on this game down to my own silly oversight. Without letting that affect me, I am looking with fresh eyes, and despite the checkered history ere, these stats suggest goals late on, and usually I would be laying unders but that is at a ridiculous odds of 4. Eupen is priced at 1.23, so that I think is value. Not as much as usual given the history here, but enough to have a go. I will basically stake it smallish just aiming to break even on this game if a goal goes in for Oostende. If it doesn’t, my red from THIS trade is small, the rest of the red has been swallowed as my own mistake and as always, mistakes cost money so that’s accepted and forgotten about. Must try harder… 😀
Just thought I would post this to show we all mess up sometimes, but how we deal with it is SO crucial in trading.
Watford was a disappointment, but a trade I would take again on those stats and prices, so no unhappiness there, just some well planned red to absorb. 😀
I am amazed Zulte haven’t scored yet too. The odds rose at HT and stayed up for a good 5-10 mins into second half, which is usually the sign of a team constantly on the brink of scoring. I will be exiting at 1.8 here if no goals, but still hopeful of one. Struggling so far, but keep calm and carry on making good decisions…
P.S. Westerlo are 3-1 up. I am having a small lay (have green from LTD trade) to lay them at 1.07. Stats not too relevant here, the game play and attacks have been impressive from Kortrijk and a goal could be a nice bit of green versus very little downside. plenty of time left for a goal or two yet, low expectations but lower prices = trade 🙂