Tuesday 31 Jan

Not much at all on today’s card. Cups and Internationals mainly. One game which looks worth a go if level at HT is Notts Forest v Rotherham. It would be nice if Rotherham could somehow magically prevent a goal before HT. Second half looks likely to see a goal from Forest I think. The only alternative idea is to wait and hope for a low unders or LTD entry at around 70-75 minutes if still no goals or level.

Thanks Lee – Egypt…..

Not sure whether this merits a “WTF?!” or not! The prices on Unders (0.5 and 1.5) suggest the market believes two goals are due here, which is priced at evens. Yet the draw is odds on before KO?! Weird. Without looking at any stats at all, there is a less than evens LTD here which can be held right up til the final whistle, I would be prepared to risk slightly less than my stake on A goal here at any time, greening after 1 goal if it comes. Well spotted that man 🙂 …

Read more

Wednesday 25 Jan

Leeds v Nott Forest – This looks excellent value. Stats suggest best entry is half time, or 15 mins in at earliest. but given the very cheap entry before KO (which may rise I suspect) of just under 4, I would think a KO entry may as well be taken here. …

Read more

Tuesday 24 Jan

Howdy all. Well I have been away for longer than originally planned, and some changes are underway here due to some family issues which means life will change a bit for me over the next few months. I am also working with someone about some strategy stuff, exciting but will be a long road. Worth every inch of the journey I think long term, but it’s going to mean I can’t spend hours each day discussing trades and stuff. I will do my best to publish my picks as usual, but beyond that I will be a bit quieter than usual for a while now. I hope to emerge with …

Read more

Email problems

I have wondered why my inbox has been quiet the past few days. It turns out there is something wrong with my email setup so hopefully when that’s fixed the emails will flood in, but if you have emailed me and don’t hear back from me within a week, please resend in case it got lost in the tubes somewhere.

Sunday 8 Jan

Celta de Vigo – If level at 75 mins LTD or lay unders whichever looks best value Villareal v Barca – Again Barca are hard to oppose (although the other day showed they can be opposed!) but the stats tell a very different story to the odds. 1.55 on Barca is way too cheap, so I might oppose them here. not sure how, laying them is one decent option, as is backing the draw with a target in mind of xx odds or 1-1 late in the game. Just need to be aware (if backing draw) that it will drop nicely if VR score, but if they score again it …

Read more