Sunday 8 Jan

Celta de Vigo – If level at 75 mins LTD or lay unders whichever looks best value

Villareal v Barca – Again Barca are hard to oppose (although the other day showed they can be opposed!) but the stats tell a very different story to the odds. 1.55 on Barca is way too cheap, so I might oppose them here. not sure how, laying them is one decent option, as is backing the draw with a target in mind of xx odds or 1-1 late in the game. Just need to be aware (if backing draw) that it will drop nicely if VR score, but if they score again it will come back up. Laying Barca seems the best value here, no guarantees as if they come out on top form they could slaughter VR, but the stats suggest it won’t be quite that easy and an odds on lay offers various ways to profit, no goals, few goals, late goals from VR, etc etc. Obviously there is risk staking needs to be sensible.

AC Milan – This game is overpriced, but if its level at HT I might consider a LTD or lay unders if no goals.


Sunday 8 Jan — 5 Comments

      • Ha, I would love to take the credit John, but if you look at the stats of the two teams and blank out the team names, it really was pretty hard to see Barcelona as such strong favourites, VR are a damn good team and their stats reflect that.
        I am still reeling over the incredible 0-0 result at Lazio, incredible against those scoring stats. Win some lose some! I would take that on every day, and be very green by the end of the year regardless of shockers like that, but I have to say I was more confident of that one than most. Just goes to reiterate, stats give us probabilities, not certainties!! Maybe I needed reminding, thank you oh Market Gods, I am merely your worshipful student 🙂

  1. Well I have a lot to thank you for so just giving credit where it’s due! I think you are a great judge and your knowledge of statistics is outstanding in my opinion…lies, damn’s how you interpret them and you sir do a great job so thank you! Love the site, learn so much from you and it’s greatly appreciated

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