In Play horses and Lille

Well firstly the French footie –  Lille was mentioned to me by a few people today for various reasons, but for those who saw it as a “lay caen” or “back lille” opp, I would certainly agree with either. there was a better way (totally different) to trade it but I was busying around with horses today so I didnt look at it until a while after the 0-1 goal. The small back bet didn’t pan out but that’s fine, they can’t always and this was one I would take any time. You can see why I stake small this time of year though as I do always feel early season sees a slightly lower strike rate on value bets taken from stats. But again, not saying it wasn’t a good bet because it was. The form and stats were clear enough, but even so I still go half stakes max this early in the season until things firm up a bit numbers-wise. What I found funny on this one was how the attacking stats of lille were pretty awesome (way above Caen) until 30 seconds after I backed Lille, then Caen doubled their attacks! 0-2. After that it’s all over really as Lille won’t have bothered defending and I was more expectant of a 0-3 in the end. But at 0-1, Lille were a great bet. One of those “good losing trades” you might say!

In Play horses – a few people (referring to my In Play racing methods) mentioned Croquembouche. Yes and what a pick it was, but NOT because it won! I am a bit concerned already that some people are falling for the old “Wait… it might WIN!” problem, which plagues the In-Play trading stuff for obvious and natural reasons. It’s crucial to resist those urges. You want to capture a modest but healthy spread of ticks from a predictable price movement, you do NOT want to win a BET. It doesn’t matter who wins, not to traders. The problem is that if you hold on and, as in this case, someone gets a 34-1 winner, the buzz is SO enormous it’s almost impossible to resist doing so again, and this basically cuts your trading very short because it sure as hell won’t happen very often. Bag the easy green. As “Al” said in his message:

“Never headed from the start, I was in at 34 and out at about 20! Lovely winner but holding on is purely gambling”.

I couldn’t have said it better myself. So well done to Al and for one or two others who either did hold on, or wanted to, you were all wrong to be even thinking about doing so! It was a photo finish too, for those (few) who held on, tell me you weren’t sweating buckets, go on! Tell me how you would have felt with the coin toss going the other way on that photo?! So you go from high as a kite, to down in the gutter, emotionally speaking. That’s a surefire way to over-indulge on the emotions, and as its emotions which present the greatest threat to any successful trader, just stay the hell away from them! Al was relaxed on entry, and relaxed on exit. He was probably making a cuppa when some people were sat sweating and/or praying. Be the cuppa maker, not the one with the sweaty palms clutching a Bible!

P.S. Croquembouche wasn’t without some competition on the stats, so yes it was a trade and he had a clearly strong trend, but given the competition from a good 4-5 other horses, it was certainly not a full stake trade, not in my opinion anyway 🙂

Good to hear he was spotted though, which at least confirms I managed to explain how to find them!

Cheers for now.


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