Footie

It’s pretty funny, well it is sitting here anyway! I have had quite a few people asking me to post in play stuff more when I can as I have been pretty slack with posting lately even before having the excuse of working on the ‘Bible’. I had my first proper evening of “let’s see what happens” in play/value-betting on footie, first time in a little while anyway. I intended to post various bits and bobs as they came up, like I used to a long while back. I am out of the office and with a friend enjoying a few days of fun and discussion of Betfair stuff, oh and I admit a SMALL amount of beer was involved so it was small stakes lighthearted trading (but still 100% trading of course)! So I opened up Flashscores, ticked all the major leagues, then just sat back to wait for pings, at which point Soccerway is used to see if it’s a ‘value’ opportunity or not. After opening my first position on the Portuguese game it went absolutely haywire and I could barely keep up with bets and browser tabs, let alone post on here. How many 5-6 goal games in one evening?! Out of about 10 trades, I posted one, and it was the only loser! A few of you are doing similar stuff so you no doubt took many of the good ops tonight, a good night all round I am sure as the opportunities came thick and fast for a solid 2 hours.

Oh actually I just remembered I posted Furth v Ingol too, no way that was ending 0-0 but I expected more goals than that. A win is a win though so I will take it. It was one of the only games I saw all evening with less than three hundred goals in it! 😀 Man Shitty traded down around 1.04 and went on to lose to Newcastle. Well done lads! A lay the draw doesn’t particularly care who goes ahead, but still, it was one of those days, many odd results but shots and goals everywhere.

Regarding that Portimonense game, of ALL the trades I ran tonight, that would have probably been my strongest! On the stats anyway, which weren’t amazing by any means, but strong enough for me to expect a home win or at least a home goal which is all I was looking for after they went 0-1 down.

statsWhat are the chances of the team on the right beating the team on the left? Low! But they did today! As many of you in play traders know, stats are always involved but they play a SLIGHTLY reduced role in this in-play stuff. They are definitely part of it but in some cases if I see a game which ‘should’ (according to the stats) have 1 goal max, and it’s 2-2 by 50-60 minutes, I will often do what the game has done – throw the stats out of the window, then just go by the value in the prices if there is any, which there sometimes isn’t, but there sure was a fair bit lying around tonight.

As a little tip, when you’re under pressure due to 5 opportunities flying in front of you at the same time and you need to check stats etc, it can be difficult and you can miss opportunities before you have time for a detailed run through on Soccerway. I sometimes keep this page open in my browser, next to Flashscores. It’s worth bookmarking for anyone not aware of it. Be careful about trading directly off it, but I have done so and I did tonight. Having said that, I only use it to give me a split-second idea of the scoring/conceding stats, so I can open a trade quick, or sometimes several, then I go to Soccerway and thoroughly double check it, closing the trade if I don’t like what I see. Over the years I have found that whilst this does happen, it’s fairly rare that I close something. The BV algorithm uses a combination of all the stats to generate it’s own figures in percentages for the chances of the win-draw-win, and also for the chances of an over/under 2.5 goals game. Generally I ignore anything under 60%. If I see something over that, AND the game has gone ‘wrong’ according to punter’s expectations, I might dive in with a trade and then validate that trade while it’s running, closing if necessary. It sounds a bit wrong in a pure sense, but I find it works and especially when there is a lot of activity in one evening where I would miss many “gut feel” opportunities due to spending a few minutes reading all the stats. Multiply that by 5 games and you have a problem, and I have missed many trades due to that. I missed several tonight despite having this faster approach. It’s amazing how often a goal goes in from a serious underdog, and gets an instant reply goal. Over time I found that I can trust BV pretty well, some people even trade just based on those figures, but I use it as a cheat sheet to get a very fast idea of whether my gut feeling has some stats evidence behind it or not. If I see, for example, a game where the home team is 64% to win, and they are 0-1 or 0-2 (especially) down, I might just lay the leader or back the losing team, then go and sift through the detail on Soccerway to decide if I can find reasons to get out. Likewise, if a game has had 2 quick goals, say in the first 10-15 minutes, and BV shows the likelihood of an under2.5 result being over 60%, ideally 70%+, I may just lay over 2.5 for a little while. Often, if no more goals go in, the odds drift out very fast due to being ‘over bet’ after the two early goals. If the game slows down at that point, as it often will in games which the stats suggest will be low-scoring affairs, the odds rapidly try to get back to where they were before the KO. This is just one of 10-20 ‘ideas’ which are in my head when I have Flashscores open. Tonight was so busy that I couldn’t have opened half of my trades without the use of BV, so it earned it’s money today, which is good cos it’s free!

Swansea, Guingamp, Blackpool, Luton, Bradford, just to name those which I can remember off hand, they were all chock full of opportunities for anyone sat with their finger on the trigger as some of you were.

A few very late small dabbles purely on the odds and incredible activity in the games. Bradford being the last of them, tiny stakes as it was a “oh go on then just one more” type of trade to finish the day off with a cheeky late extra £95. A significant percentage of my footie bank made today despite the small stakes, and with beer in hand too! Who says beer and trading don’t go together? Oh, yeah, ME!! Well it wasn’t “drinking” exactly, more sipping and discussing football in between sips. Still it’s rare that I drink at all during trading (never on full stakes), about as rare as a day so jam packed with opportunities. I am pleased that I wasn’t the only one to snip some green from many of them too.

I have recently received a few very positive comments about the pre-race ebook, thanks to those who commented, and glad to hear that so far every reader seems to be sensible, head screwed on firmly, and ready for a slow and steady learning process rather than diving in too quick. Looking forward to hearing more on people’s progress and thanks for the kind words which help to remind me that it was worthwhile doing. A few people also have a renewed interest in “scalping” after reading the section on that which pleases me after so many people give it a bad rap, usually due to a lack of understanding of what real scalping is!

Lots going on here, and the website still needs a big overhaul (loads of bits are out of date and need upgrading/sorting) so once all that’s done I hope to be posting more regularly again. All the best for now….

 


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