(If you’re here for the Discount code, it’s down the bottom)
Hi all. It’s been a while. I’ve been all over the place recently, mostly doing stuff I would rather not be doing but some good stuff in between thankfully.
I have a friend who trades rugby and since rugby is on everyone’s mind lately, I thought I would write a brief post just to open any rugby minds out there to the idea of trading. Rugby can be a great environment for beginners to play with the strategy of “laying the leader” which is basically just value betting. I posted about value bets a while back too, but generally only relating to football trading. But rugby can work great for this method, partly due to the less experienced people involved in the markets, and partly just due to the nature of the Betfair markets and the nature of the game of rugby itself which is fairly unique.
For reasons which are frankly beyond me, the rugby markets seem to nose dive when a team goes ahead, almost as much as football does, yet a try in rugby doesn’t represent anything like the importance of a goal in football. There are various other reasons why this baffles me, such as the massive physical demands on the players’ bodies and the important of their fitness in rugby. In football, fitness doesn’t play a huge role in most major league games because all players are supremely fit and running around for 90 minutes isn’t really a big ask for them. Also the game is more stable, so the level of exertion doesn’t fluctuate much between the first whistle and the last. In rugby however, teams have some extremely heavy players and some extremely fast and fit players, but the heavier ones often wane towards the end of the game and in my experience the game of rugby is much more likely to see late comebacks from underdogs than football, as these key heavier players get tired and less able to hold back an attacking team, so tries can often come very late in the game. This presents a lot of opportunity to those with an eye on “value” in the markets, my friend being one good example.
He will often trade premier league games, and his most frequent trade is to lay the leader, especially after an early lead. I have seen it myself countless times, as I watch a bit of rugby, but I try to separate my “leisure sport” from trading, more so over the last few years. At one time I would find a reason to trade just about any sport, and I do watch a fair bit of sport. With the absolute junk on TV these days, and the more channels we get, the more junk we get by all accounts, I watch more and more sport, and less and less junk. But this caused me to never be away from my laptop, or running from the sofa to the office, sometimes 5-10 times in an hour! It was good, from a trading perspective, but I began to lose the idea of time off! My evenings needed protecting, so I never really got into rugby as a heavy trader, I kept it as a purely entertainment feature of my evenings. But I have to admit, the temptation became too great occasionally and I found there are some very easy greens to be made by just spotting a team bursting into a 7 to 10 point lead in the first quarter of an hour, and laying them. Greening up when the other team scored back, or sometimes waiting to allow them to gain a lead, if they were clearly the better team.
There is a problem here though – STATS. All through my trading career I have always relied heavily on stats, almost exclusively in fact. But IF you know a game well, as I do rugby (and many of you probably do too), you’re intuition or reading of how a game is flowing can be just as valuable. But I do confine this statement to rugby for the purposes of this post. It does obviously apply elsewhere, but it’s a slippery slope to start trying to do it on too many sports. Formula 1 is a possible other exception, but that’s for another post. Horse racing trading is arguably similar, but the intuition is more applied to the ladders, not the actual horses. Although In-Play racing does rely heavily on stats of course. Football is definitely one example of a sport where stats are crucial, but even in football trading, you can take value bets in play for a good long term green strategy. But again, you need to understand the game quite well for that. Stats is the safer way to go there until that experience has been gained over at least a year, in my view anyway.
But back to rugby, it really does amaze me what the prices do during many games where one team goes ahead by sometimes only one converted try. One try ahead in rugby, between two reasonably even teams, often means absolutely nothing in relation to the likely result of the match. Yet I see teams go heavily odds-on, even in the first 10-20 minutes, just due to one try, even a lucky one where the back runners intercept the ball and get a clear home run. These tries can happen to any team, it’s almost a luck-based try, so when I see one of those it basically seems like free money for me to lay that team on the basis of that try, and green up on any reply (with points) from the opposition. Obviously no guarantees, so care is needed, as if that needed saying.
I have been meaning to mention it a few times but I didn’t want to get any more heavily into it myself so I resisted. But the England v New Zealand game got me a bit fired up about rugby again and I know a few readers do dabble in rugby so I thought it was time I at least mentioned the subject. Before that game I chatted with my friend. I was absolutely convinced England would win, and win it easily. Combining that with the fact that the All Blacks have an almost mystical following (they are pretty damn special!), and this is bound to reflect in the betting markets, I knew that if the All Blacks went ahead early, it was RIPE for laying them, and heavily too. I nearly posted about this on Friday before the game, but I didn’t want to risk people reading my post as a kind of “tip”, as that’s not my way, as most of you know who have been reading my dribble all these years. 😀
That was actually my friend’s plan too, to hope NZ went ahead early and lay them. In the end it was such a convincing performance by England that the opportunity didn’t arise. England were worth a bet before the game too in my opinion, but I didn’t do it, I just wanted to enjoy the whipping we finally gave those Kiwi rugby geniuses!
I have had England picked for winning this World Cup for a long while now. The All Blacks are awesome, but this time round they have shown plenty of weaknesses and mistakes, and England are the best they have ever been in my view. This is theirs to lose now, and whilst they could of course lose, my mind doesn’t even see that as a realistic possibility at this point. If I was of that view before the NZ game, I ain’t about to change it now! I won’t actually be betting on them (well, unless the game tilts strongly against them early, in which case I am sure I won’t be able to resist a dabble!) but I will mainly just be enjoying what I am sure will be one of the best rugby games of all time. Here’s to next weekend!
Well that’s all from me, except to mention that quite a few people have asked me recently if there are any discount codes for the pre race ebook. I did say in the book that I priced it deliberately to make it something which the ‘half-committed’ people would not buy, it’s for serious traders and it’s a seriously big and complex book for a very serious and enormous trading strategy.
Watching the England game put me in a very bubbly mood, which is rare for this grumpy old git lately apparently! So I decided to create a discount code to offer 25% off all products, ending at midnight next Sunday 3rd November, by which time England should be World Cup Champions :D.
As most readers know, I don’t do promotions very often so I hope this makes up for it! If you’re one of the people out there who wants any of my ebooks, the pre race one in particular, but have struggled to justify the expense, hopefully this gives you your chance. It goes without saying that I think the ebooks (the PR book in particular) are worth every penny and then some! And the testimonials appear to back that up.
The discount coupon is WORLDCUP2019. You just need to type that into the coupon field at the checkout.
I will be posting some football picks again soon as quite a few people have been asking for advice lately so I think I will send out some trading reasoning and statistical analysis etc, especially for those who are new to footie trading. I am hoping people are out of the habit of just following my selections, as this has always been a bugbear of mine and it’s not what I started this blog for. Find “tips” somewhere else! This is for budding traders who want to learn how to replicate my methods, not just profit off the back of my analysis, lazy buggers!
Well that’s about it. Here’s to next weekend, and hope all you readers are doing well in your trading.
Oh, I nearly forgot, and this is important and probably relevant to a fair number of you…
Facebook – That’s a dirty word to me now and I am actually about to have a mouthwash with industrial bleach. There are three reasons:
1. The absolutely horrific data mining operation, and dishonest approach they have to “customer service” and privacy/data issues. Two videos which will explain my objections quite succinctly are this one, and this one. This was a worthwhile read too – How Facebook Knows Everyone You Ever Met
2. Facebook has such an immense amount of power now, it is becoming a blatant political censor. See here and this video (especially from 5 minutes in – Epstein). With frequent suggestions of Zuckerberg running for President one day, that is a very very scary state of affairs. I firmly believe that with the power of Facebook (especially if combined with Twitter/Google), Silicon Valley could get Kim Jong-Un elected to President if it wanted. They are way too big foir their boots, and they seem to like kicking, so it’s just gone way too far for me, especially when so many people these days basically live out their entire lives on Facebook, shopping on it, communicating on it, making political decisions on it, doing just about everything on it, all of that activity monitored and recorded forever.
As if that wasn’t reason enough…
3. Facebook blocked my account for no apparent reason. Was it something I said?! Probably. They listen to everything so it’s highly likely :D. Totally random suspension with no explanation. I suspect it was due to me being out of the country (logging in from a different connection maybe), but far worse, they didn’t respond to a single request from me to ask why, have it unblocked, or anything else. I stressed for an entire day, after all many of my readers used Facebook to stay informed of new posts. And therein lies the exact problem of the entire world relying on Facebook (or any single entity) for their communications with people – you are completely beholden to that entity. If you say something they don’t like, or for any other reason, thay can ‘disappear’ you with the click of a button, even just with an automated computer system, algorithmic censoring. I am still clueless as to what the reason was (or if there even was one), and I gave up trying to find out. I asked FacePlant to permanently delete my account and all associated data, never heard back but it seems it has been done. I feel cleaner for it, and so does my computer.
I have occasionally considered setting up a new Facebook page as many people have asked, due to their addiction to it and hence their preference for following my posts that way. But I have to cut my nose off to spite my face a little here, and I hereby announce I won’t be touching that platform again. It’s a shame for my readers who no longer receive updates (probably half of them at least), but progress is sometimes challenging and painful, and a life without Facebook is, in my view, total and utter progress! With that said, please note, if you are reading this and want to stay up to date, you must sign up for my email list (sidebar of website), as that’s all I will rely on now, and that’s had its own problems too at times. (I will remain on Twitter for now, simply because that never seems to go wrong and it’s not as pervasive as Facebook, I can’t say I like it, but if it ain’t broke……)
That’s all folks. Enjoy the rugby!