Only a quick dabble this evening. I laid Aalen when 1-0 up against Munich 1860, two home goals in quick succession gave me a nice bit of green so I am using some of that to have a dabble on both the Roma and Nurnberg games, laying U2.5. Roma I am not so confident in (confident enough though) as they seem to be playing pass the parcel a bit. But stats are stats, and I will be surprised if there isn’t at least one goal in the second half. …
Well two goals to Hearts. I am greening, and then laying them, not heavily, but they are not “supposed” to win this game, so maybe some more green to come. Edit: For those of you who are trading, you will have spotted that a few seconds after I posted this (old habits die hard, typing before doing!), Kilmarnock got a goal. My lay order at 1.15 was a split second from matching! It’s now 1.59, grr. Nice bit of green missed there, but can’t win em all. I could learn to order my bets before typing updates, but then that seems a bit tight to me. 😀
Trip out cancelled so I am sticking around to see what comes up. Well Duisburg scored again but I still made a decent profit as I laid again at 1.02 when it went 3-0, and I didn’t green until 3-2. 1.02 is a nice price with 15-20 mins left of the game and the stats showing Darmstadt score a huge amount of their goals near the end of the game. I am laying the draw in Kilmarnock game, it’s 0-0 and stats suggest it won’t stay that way, not a killer trade but at 2.8ish, it’s a bargain I think. …
Having a small (value) lay on Duisburg who are 2-0 up. Probabilities again, far from a sure winner, but I think the chances of Darmstadt are good enough for a lay at 1.16 I am out this evening so won’t be trading any others
I have had a few comments recently regarding the concept of “Value” when trading on Betfair. I answered those queries but after responding to another one today I thought I would put up a quick post using my reply in case other readers are wondering about it too. Maybe it’s just a coincidence or maybe there is a forum thread buzzing somewhere on this topic lately, either way….. “Just wondering about this whole “value” concept that I have read about so much over the last year or so and how this relates to the methods used to pick LTD selections. How do we know we are getting value with …
Hi all, I had an email from a reader just as I was leaving the desk, so as I typed a reply I thought it would be better to put it here in case anyone else considered the same football match for a LTD trade. Before I paste that, a quick word on the pre race book – Family came and went, I won’t go into detail here but it wasn’t a normal visit, there were some fireworks and stuff which meant they only left day before yesterday. I have been catching up on emails and stuff, and ready to get my head into the ebook to finish it. I …