A quick word about “Value” bets (or trades)

I have had a few comments recently regarding the concept of “Value” when trading on Betfair. I answered those queries but after responding to another one today I thought I would put up a quick post using my reply in case other readers are wondering about it too. Maybe it’s just a coincidence or maybe there is a forum thread buzzing somewhere on this topic lately, either way…..   “Just wondering about this whole “value” concept that I have read about so much over the last year or so and how this relates to the methods used to pick LTD selections. How do we know we are getting value with …

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Bolivian Game

Hi all, I had an email from a reader just as I was leaving the desk, so as I typed a reply I thought it would be better to put it here in case anyone else considered the same football match for a LTD trade. Before I paste that, a quick word on the pre race book – Family came and went, I won’t go into detail here but it wasn’t a normal visit, there were some fireworks and stuff which meant they only left day before yesterday. I have been catching up on emails and stuff, and ready to get my head into the ebook to finish it. I …

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Just a quickie…

International V Recife – Its a bit high priced, looks a good pick but I don’t think I would want in until the draw is priced below 4.2, so a chance to watch some of the game or wait for 20-30 minutes. If its 0-0 at 30 mins I would definitely be getting involved, but the away team could score (very tight defence for Inter though) so need to be a bit careful and ready to handle a 0-1 situation. I am working hard on the pre race horse racing ebook many of you will be pleased to hear. It’s got to be good, so it’s taking a LOOOOOONG while …

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Saturday games questions

I have had a few people asking me to comment on some of their shortlisted games so here goes… Levante v Deportivo Alaves – I agree with you Al this is one of those you could be forgiven for ignoring based on the unimpressive stats of the home team, but it’s one of those where the away team is so much more dismal that the home team begins to look quite strong in my view. It may not be full of goals, but this is a game I would likely trade, perhaps a bit differently than a bog standard KO LTD though. Levante are not on blistering form, that much is …

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In Play horses

A few people (referring to my In Play racing methods) mentioned Croquembouche. Yes and what a pick it was, but NOT because it won! I am a bit concerned already that some people are falling for the old “Wait… it might WIN!” problem, which plagues the In-Play trading stuff for obvious and natural reasons. It’s crucial to resist those urges. You want to capture a modest but healthy spread of ticks from a predictable price movement, you do NOT want to win a BET. It doesn’t matter who wins, not to traders. The problem is that if you hold on and, as in this case, someone gets a 34-1 winner, the …

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Content updated

Hi all, just a quickie to say I have finally got round to fully updating my article on pre-race horse racing trading. I put a lot of time into this as so many have asked for a lot more info than I offered before. An ebook will follow as soon as I can, but for now I am hoping this page gives many of you insatiable fanatics something to chew on while you wait! Also thanks for the updates from many of you on how well your lay the draw trading is going, really inspiring to read some of your messages and to see how skilled a lot of you …

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Update

Hi all, sorry for lack of posts recently. There are various reasons, some slightly experimental too, so here is a summary… I got ill yet again, driving me crazy and don’t think my body can take many more courses of antibiotics at this rate! That caused me to stop posting for a while, trading is just about manageable when unwell (some of the time anyway) but posting on the blog takes a bit more effort, screenshots and explanations etc, so i left that for a while. Wrist – turns out I was right and they were ignoring my valid concerns. Cartilage damage means surgery likely now, so i was told …

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