Lay The Draw Trading Strategy Outline – Football Exchange

Betfair trading method - laying the drawSince publishing this article I have released my Lay The Draw Strategy eBook. This documents my entire approach to this method in extensive detail, showing every check I make during my analysis when selecting my trades, as well as my exactly how I manage each and every live trade.

Click Here for more information


Laying The Draw is probably one of the most well-known Betfair trading strategies of them all. There are various reasons for this, such as the fact that it appeals to people who enjoy football (which is a lot of people after all), but also because the method is pretty simple compared to most other trading methods. If you can follow a few simple but very important rules, many traders find profitability quite quickly with this strategy.

I have used Lay The Draw (LTD) on a daily basis (depending on each day’s offerings) for many years now, and I really like it as I found it was the most stable earner for me as far as football is concerned. After just a few minutes of careful research, you can take a position in the market before a game kicks off and then walk away, grab a beer and sit and watch the match. (You do not need to watch the match of course). Then if the favourite scores or the game goes according to the statistics (usually it does, not always, that’s trading folks) you pop back to the computer and hit the one click green up button, and hey presto, you bag a nice profit, take another swig of your beer, and enjoy the end of the game. Better still, when the family try to change channel, you can say “No, I need to watch this, it’s business” 😀

Lay the drawIf you don’t get any goals, you set yourself a time limit or an odds limit (stop loss) and you trade out, or with trading software you can set an auto-fill stop loss which exits your trade for you without you returning to the computer. Be careful with this though, you should always check the software did exit your trade for you, as a blip or connection issue could be costly. (Here speaks the voice of experience!)

In recent years Betfair has introduced a great little trade exit or “cash out” button within their website, so another great reason for using this method is the fact you don’t need trading software since this development. This is a major advantage as most trading methods I use require software both for speed of trade entry as well as speed of exit, for example in horse racing where you need to get in and out in split seconds.


So, how does Lay The Draw work?

Well here is a basic outline of my process, and I must stress that everyone has their own way of doing this so you don’t need to follow my rules, I am just sharing what I do as a lot of people asked me to:

  • Go to and pull up the “Today’s In Play” coupon (page).
  • Scan down all games and find ones which qualify based on the odds
  • Then go to a football stats website and look up those games to get the team stats. This will compare the teams’ form and scoring stats. There is a lot of personal judgement involved at this point, but what I look for is a strong home favourite who normally beats the away team (in last few years), and scores at least 1.5 goals per game while conceding less than 1 goal per game. I would also want to see that the away team scores less than 1.2 goals per game, and concedes more than 1, ideally more than 1.5.
  • I will then go to my trading software and LAY the draw.
  • Enjoy the game and wait for the home favourite to score a goal. When they do you have two choices. You can either take your money and run (as I used to always do) or more recently I tend to make a judgement call based on how the game is playing combined with the strength of the home team scoring stats. If they usually score 2.5-3 goals per game, and if the game looks lively with lots of shots on target, I will usually wait until HT latest to trade out, often getting a second goal which will normally double your winnings for that trade. It’s a judgement call every time though, and you can wish you had traded out if the away team scores! Choose one approach and stick to it, that’s the secret to evening out the “luck factor”.

P.S. The above is just a very brief outline and definitely NOT enough information to try trading with. For an extremely detailed description of my method, including every click and every check I make before trading, as well as what I do in the various scenarios (both good and bad) to protect myself or take maximum profit from a successful trade, read my detailed eBook.

I usually watch the games on my computer as I have several screens and I have one just for live feeds of games. You can find various good sites for live football coverage all over the world. Some of the stream sites have very annoying adverts everywhere, but if you full screen the video player after closing all the pop up ads, you won’t get any more. That took me a year to work out and I was glad when I did! Having a dedicated screen (plus Sky Sports and BT sports packages) also helps a great deal.

The best setup is a top team like Barcelona playing a team around the bottom of the league, except in that case the odds would probably be 7-10 on the draw making it too expensive to trade from the off. However in SOME cases, I will watch a game, and if it is electric but bad luck prevents goals causing an unexpected half time score of 0-0, I will sometimes get in later on by laying the draw then. The risks are greater though because half the game has already been played so the chance of no goals being scored may have increased, but again it’s a judgement call and this is not something a beginner should be doing really.


How much do you stake? How much can you win?

Well I would usually stake a maximum of 5% of my bank, but that’s fairly high and I spent a long time on 1% or 2% stakes until I knew my selections held up over the long term. I also use smaller stakes in various situations such as when I am not as confident in the trade, if the odds are not as nice, or whatever else.

To explain the numbers, let’s say I do a £200 lay, which if laying at odds of 4 means my total liability is £600 but this is irrelevant. What is more important is that, if I laid £200 @ 4 and exited at my stop loss point of 2 (by backing the draw @ 2 for £200 and then redding up) my total liability is £200. So if I enter a trade by laying the draw at odds of 5, and no goals come so I exit @ 2, my max loss is £300 which is about as much as I am prepared to risk, and the stats would need to be VERY good to get involved in a trade at odds of 5.

I doubled my trading bank two seasons running early in my trading career, pretty much only using the lay the draw strategy with my personal angles and rules, these are my “edge” (which I share in the ebook of course!). This was when I knew I had found a winning selection process. It can be a very profitable trading method and I know of several traders who do very nicely with LTD, for have done for many years too. £100k+ per year tax-free is achieved by some full time traders, and each trader has their own take on the overall strategy. You need a lot of practice to get to that level though, and like all trading, don’t go into it expecting to make that in your first year. If it was that easy everyone would be doing it, and they definitely aren’t!


Exiting a lay the draw trade

Lay The Draw Football Trading

Not a big trade but I noticed the early scoreline of 1-1 which gave a chance for a decent priced entry to lay the draw. As it happens, the away favourite didn’t score the next goal as I was hoping, but the home team did, and there was still plenty of profit for me to bank. If the score was 3-1 I would be looking at well over £200 profit on this trade which would have made it a bit sweeter, but green is green.

I usually exit when the odds come down to 2 or at 65-70 minutes, whichever comes first. I will also exit if the away team (underdog) score first, although again it is down to my discretion based on the game play, and if the home team are banging in shots and have just been unlucky not to get a goal, then the away team flukes a penalty or similarly lucky goal, I will sometimes stay in and wait for the home team to come back to 1-1 when you can exit if you want to, or wait and see if they can take the lead as per the stats, which is my usual course of action in that situation.

LTD method for BetfairYou can learn about this method online, it’s been around so long and has been so popular with so many traders in the past that there’s a fair bit written about it. However do be careful, many people use it wrongly and in my view are nowhere near selective enough.

My own approach is ultra-selective, only risking my bank when I can’t find any reason not to. That approach has stood the test of time for me, and has impressed many of my readers too.


Lay The Draw Trading Strategy Outline – Football Exchange — 49 Comments

    • Not in my view no. The odds on a draw are often much better than odds on 0-0. I haven’t checked for years but i have a vague memory of around 8% of all games worldwide ending 0-0. This will be reflected in the odds, which means laying such a long shot will require a very high liability and therefore bank balance. A draw can come in the shape of 1-1, 2-2, 5-5 etc! Therefore the draw price can be low while goals are strongly expected, and therefore we can maximise the potential upside while minimising the potential risks and downsides. Hope this makes sense. In short, laying 0-0 is an easy way to make money most of the time, but an easy way to lose your shirt, your son’s shirt and your grandad’s shirt too when it does happen. If you lay the draw and no goals go in, the odds move against you over time, but quite slowly. If a goal goes in from the team you didn’t want to score, your trade can become a red one, but it’s often a small loss comparison to laying 0-0, and you can still wait around for the stronger team to get their act together which I often do, unless the loss is so small and the game is so dull I just feel like getting out sometimes.

    • That’s a good question. Back the favourite is another method I use, but I usually prefer LTD as the home team in my strongest picks is often such a short price, you can get more odds movement and therefore profit from a LTD trade. Also the risks are greater, if you back a team at 1.5 odds on, and the dog scores unexpectedly, you often face a bigger loss with less options for escape. With LTD, if the dog scores, you are effectively on a winning bet as the scoreline isn’t a draw. This means you can get out with a smallish loss, or if you waited and dog scored again (quite often happens after they score first in my experience) then you still have a nice winning trade possible.

    • Yes there is, but being a lazy person, I have long forgotten the formula!! The easiest way (which is why I don’t remember it!) is to use the Betfair “cash out” option or better still, trading software. It will calculate the outcome with green or red figures as you place the stake and odds on your exit bet.

  1. Please give me example of this.
    I want to place a bet on betfair exchange market.

    I want to say at Benfica – Besiktas, the match will end in Draw.

    If i bet 100 euro, what will be my winnings and what will be my looses?
    If the game ends in draw, how much do i win?
    If the game ends not draw, how much do i loose?

    Thank you!

    • Oh dear. First things first, DO NOT bet on anything, you don’t even understand what a back bet is yet, so you have lots to learn before you risk any money.
      Before you do anything else, download my free ebook and read it at least once, ideally twice, slowly! You can get it here.

      What you are asking is basically how can you bet on the outcome of an event. That is not trading, that is gambling. I don’t mind if you want to gamble, but I don’t want you to confuse the information I publish here with gambling, I trade the markets, I do not just place bets and hope for the best.

      In answer to your question, if you back the draw (bet on the draw) then the most you can lose is your stake, the amount you bet. So in your example you would lose 100 Euros if the game did not end in a draw. If it did end in a draw, you would get your stake multiplied by the odds. Betfair shows you this before you submit your bet, you can click to back an event, enter your stake and it will show green and red figures on the left hand side under the names of the teams, this shows you winnings and losses IF you go ahead with your BET.

      My advice, don’t do any of it it. If you read my free beginner’s guide to trading you will understand why. 🙂

  2. Hi Tim,

    When laying the draw and the favourite scores first you could wait and see if they score a second goal. If you are confident of a second goal by the favourite, is it best just to leave the bet open until a second goal is scored or to remove all liability after the first goal goes in so you effectively have a free bet?

    • That’s a good question and one I can’t give a definitive answer to as this is one of the areas where it comes down to personal preference and risk appetite, which differs widely among traders. My approach is to wait for a second, but on some rare occasions when I am a bit nervous I may remove liability, it’s never EVER a bad idea to remove liability or reduce risk, so long as it doesn’t eat up too much green to make a method unviable. It’s amazing how quickly being risk averse can actually make a method fail and lose you money over the long time, despite the intention being to save money! Trading is about taking risks, but taking them only when the situation demands it, and taking them on aggressively. That’s what trading is for me anyway. Some traders, for example those who focus on scalping, would say trading is about taking tiny amounts of risk for tiny amounts of green, hundreds of times a day. For me it’s about waiting for one or two strong opportunities, and taking more risk to bank more green. Both are viable, but one is for me and not for others 🙂

  3. Hi Tim

    Just bought you LTD trading strategy e-book and much appreciated your words of wisdom! I’ve tried trading the correct score but found it too “complicated” and prefer LTD. I’ve had modest success in the past with LTD but also been guilty of foolishly chasing losses!

    As you sensibly adopt strict selection criteria, can you indicate how many trades on average you take on in a full season / year?

  4. Hi Jon and thanks for your comments.

    Yes chasing is a killer habit which catches everyone at some point. In the old days long before Betfair’s “Cash Out” website option when I was much less experienced, it was much harder to avoid doing so as the trading software I was using would have so many buttons to click on and the temptation to dive back in or chase the loss was so strong. Nowadays I just see a trade as a single object, no strings attached. If it wins it wins, if it loses it loses, but either way its the end of the trade and you should cash out and close the window. Then make a brew, that’s never a bad idea! Often just looking at anything other than the markets for a minute or two is enough to kill any urge to chase a loser. But if you get your selectivity right, you will see this easily enough yourself, the losers will be more rare and when they happen, you will know they must be closed out in a disciplined way to enable the green ones to really count on your bank balance! Easier said than done to begin with, but most people soon get the hang of it. A few good greens can be undone by one silly mistake or chasing a trade wildly, and you will only do it so many times before you slap yourself. An elastic band round the wrist can help too, give it a twang when you feel the urge!!
    My LTD trading has been on and off for a while due to illness and various major commitments which made my office time more limited recently but that’s hopefully all behind me now. Whilst it varies quite a lot, generally I would say I probably average 5-10 trades a week, at a rough guess anyway. All depends whats on. Obviously when the internationals are on I leave it all alone as per the rules in the eBook. But when its a good week of quality EU league games I could have 15-20 trades some weeks. Hope that helps, good luck for your future trading.

  5. Sod’s Law that Laval take an early lead in my first trading attempt! But, I’m going to give Reims until half time before redding up! Is this sensible in view of Reims statistical superiority or should I get out now for a smaller loss? Decisions, decisions!

    • yes that was annoying but it happens. There are two options:

      1. Trade out once market settles after goal, take the loss while its small (it can get a lot bigger later) and move on.

      2. Hold in the hope of no more goals or another away goal, or in some cases where the away goal is a sheer fluke against the run of play, a strong home side can bring it back to 2-1 quickly.

      Neither option is right or wrong, the only wrong answer is to swap and change between the two. I would say the safest appraoch is to bank the loss each time it happens, but some people hold on for a set period, some hold for longer as it’s now not a draw and at some point the odds should start to reflect that and a profitable trade can still come of a 0-1 scoreline, but it depends how long that takes and that depends on the quality of the teams really.
      Safest to get out, this does happen more on trades which are priced around 3.5-3.7 as this was. Unlucky there!

    • P.S. I tend to wait for the odds to settle and get out, but if as we would hope it goes 1-1, i would often re-enter a LTD at that point or some time after when a very cheap trade is on offer. just my tuppence, again its down to personal risk appetite really

  6. Tim

    Thanks for your advice which I have taken on board. Just before Laval’s second goal, I decided to lay Laval at 1.72 to reduce my liability on the draw as the market seemed to favour an equaliser from Reims and the draw odds had hardly moved. My concern was that the match would end 1-1 and the LTD odds would shorten in the last 10 minutes of the match.

    But on reflection, in future I will trade out as soon as the first goal is scored, otherwise we are just gambling rather than trading aren’t we?

    • Hmm, i can see why you did that but have to say it’s a definite no no. Any team which goes 1-0 up against the stats, and holds that scoreline that long (when home team would have had nothing to lose so went all out to score and failed), its definitely not worth laying them, there’s as much argument (or more) for backing them :). All easy with hindsight I know and we have all been there, many times in the past believe me. But that’s known in the trade as “chasing”. It might not have felt like it, but thats your sub-conscious convincing you its a “sensible” trade, when you just have to ask “would i be doing this if i wasn’t in this situation”? If the answer is “no”, you are chasing. It’s a good mantra to remember that one but takes huge discipline to look at what you are doing from outside the situation you’re in, very very hard, but it comes with practice.

      This game was one of those you just have to accept is a loser, the stats were good enough, and I would take the same trade again tomorrow, they usually win, just not always. But IF you can swallow the loss and walk away when they lose, the winners will outweigh the losers. If not, they won’t. Hope that helps, you and many others who probably did similar things.

  7. Hi Tim

    if you trade a game LTD and half time the home team is winning 1-0 at what time to you exit your tarde? and when the game is still draw on 50mins or 60mins you exit ? or always exit when the odds its 2:00 and when you exit you make a back bet on draw?

  8. Hi Luca, yes if a trade opens with a lay bet, a back bet is needed to close or exit that trade, and vice versa. As for the times of my exits etcetera, that varies based on several criteria and is all explained in full in my LTD eBook.

  9. Hi there! Please answer me if you can, i do LTD myself(just started) and made so far 61 trade, from them 4 was 0-0 by minute 70, but 2 of them still scores the goal after i tradeout with minus, and 11 matches tradeout for minus when underdog scores first, there was more of them, but some was break even or small profit. So, so far i had 76% success trades 7% losses and 17% small losses which made in total around 20% ROI. So i am looking to improve my strike rate on success trades, but may i ask you is this good stats so far or not? What is good ROI for LTD? Thank you!

    • It’s very hard for me to type at the moment. that sounds like you are doing perfectly well. You will learn to improve your strike rate gradually as time progresses, you will learn from the losing trades if there are types of games or certain teams to avoid etc

      • Hi Tim! After i looked for those 0-0 matches i made adjustment for my choosing the teams and find out that all games had at least a goal. But today i had 1 trade and it was Verona-Entella Seria B match, i closed my tade on minute 70 losing around 40% just after 5 minutes verona scores. I am thinking to risk it all if the strike rate is good, so far over 80 matches i had with 100% no 0-0, worth a try? I use 10% liabilty with my bankroll, may be should use 5% and risk it all? Thanks

        • Hi Dmitrij, yes that’s often the way, it’s designed to test your self-control!! This is where most traders fail. As I have said many times, finding a profitable method is not rocket science, far from it in my view. What IS rocket science is behaving like a ROBOT which is exactly what you need to do for a true edge to work long term. The human element is the hard part, and unfortunately we are all human so we all go through these temptations “risk it all”. I will answer your question with a question……

          IF Verona hadn’t scored 5 minutes after you exited, how would you have felt? Would you be asking this question, would you have typed this post? I think the answer is probably no. So basically you are taking ONE isolated incident and using it to consider deviating/adjusting your entire approach to trading. No matter what the specifics, this is ALWAYS a mistake. Its lady luck trying to tempt you into gambling so she can beat you once and for all and finish you off. 🙂

          I have no issue with reduced stakes and staying in longer, that would be a trading decision. But doing it JUST because one game annoyed you, made you feel you missed out, made you feel “wrong” etc, is a big mistake. If your strategy says you exit, and you exited, you did the CORRECT THING. The goal 5 minutes later is just part of trading and must be ignored. Or yes, if you wanted, IF it works as a long term system, you can reduce you stakes and stay in longer, but how do you know this game wasn’t a fluke and your exit is normally correct over the long haul?
          Food for thought. Do the RIGHT things, sometimes these cost you money, but long term they should make you money.

          • Thanks for great comment! Yes it is hard if i stay and see 0-0 at the end then i would felt bad and thinking no more staying till the end, trade out on minute 70 :)))
            But it’s all about strike rate, and i think staying to the end or get out on minute 70 is going to make break even in long term, 10% matches getting out with a loss on minute 70 will be the same for money as 5% 0-0 matches, so far i hit 0-0 by minute 70 5%..

  10. Yes, after i post my first comment here on december 10th i made adjustments so just looked at numbers and i had 24 matches since 11th of december and in all of them was at least a goal, and 16 of them which is 66% from total matches favorite scores first so i made profit laying 10% of my bank 62.75 euro where 8 matches i lost 15.01 so total P/L: +47.74, really not sure should i just gamble or close trade on minute 70 if 0-0 with around 40% loss? Can you give me an advise here please?

    • I always have a planned stop position. This is based on stake and odds. First decide HOW MUCH RISK PER TRADE. YOu need to know this first. So lets say you will risk £50 per trade. IF you LTD with a £50 stake at 4.0 and exit at 2.0 (stop loss exit) Your real world loss is £50. If you want to stay in longer, you need to reduce your stake, if you want to be in at higher odds, you need to reduce your stake, etc. If you are getting in on a game at HT and the odds are 3.0, you can lay £100 stake and exit at 2.0 for £50 loss. Play with the numbers, I would usually plan to risk 5% of my bank on a LTD trade, and calculate what this is before entering the trade, then calculate the stakes based on odds as above. In my view, the odds collapse so quickly below 2.0, there is less and less value in staying while the losses mount up very quickly. Remember – If you lay £100 @ 4.0 and do not exit, your loss is £300, so you must have a planned exit if no goals in my view

    • Hopefully my last reply answered that. Liability is ALL you should be focussed on. Every trade should have a planned risk, and you NEVER stretch it, never ever EVER EVERRRRRRRRRR :). There is always another trade, and there is twice as much value in a new trade as there is in stretching a failed one, so get the hell out when you reach your max loss for any trade. We have all done it, but I can’t overstate this point, it is deadly to stay in and bite nails hoping and praying for a goal. Close out, find another trade another day

    • All depends Dmitrij…..

      Which order did the goals come? If strong team scored first I would have already greened up (Usually not always) after 1st goal. If weak team scored first, I would wait in til me planned exit which I decided before the trade, which should be ODDS not TIME. You can’t plan losses on xx minutes, only on xx odds. So get used to planning your odds exit, not time exit 🙂

      • Well i did review matches i am choosing to trade on and i noticed there is better to stay and wait for 2-0 till HT which is happening often and double the profit and if not to trade out at HT, but sometimes there is 1-1(underdog equalise) and it is hard to decide stay on and wait for 2-1 or close with the loss, i think i have to decide by stats, if favorite making loads of attacks and shots and keep possession i think better to stay on till odds come to 2, if game is even with loads of chances still stay on, but if game is even with not many shots trade out. I had 1 match few days ago were i closed my trade on minute 38 as i noticed dog start putting pressure on favorite, so i trade out and on minut 42 they did 1-1 wow!

        Also here is what is better to do if underdog scores first, bet 50% from initial bet on back the draw and lay 75% from initial bet on underdog, here is what i noticed in those 30% matches were underdog scores first they are going to win 54% of the time and this will do a small loss like if we get out after they did score, 16% there will be a draw, so the loss will be about 4 times bigger, but here is the interesting part, favorite come back and win the game 30% of the time and this is were we can boost our profit to the full, even more then we just bet inittialy on LTD, i gove you an example:

        A lay bet worth €20 on the draw at an odd of 3,75. This corresponds to a liability of €55 and a potential profit of €20;
        A back bet worth €10 on the draw at an odd of 3,65. This corresponds to a liability of €10 and a potential profit of €26,50;
        A lay bet worth €15 on the underdog at an odd of 1,90. This corresponds to a liability of €13,50 and a potential profit of €15;
        If the favorite team scores and draws the match, you can bring your loss down to 13,5€. If the favorite team manages to win the match, you will profit 25€. And if Dog wins the match we end up with a loss of 3.50.

        From last 89 matches i traded 17 of them dog scores first and 6 of them favourite wins the match, 2 of them was a draw and the rest 9 dog wins, so no brainer this would give a profit of 66.5€ from the matches were dog scores first to the 20€ stakes on LTD, while if we close right after dog scores we end up around -37.4€. But this is tricky really and can be done were not many draws was between the teams, favorite having on everage not many draws on average in the league and plus stats in the match as well.

        • The work you have done is commendable Dmitrij. I personally can’t bear the boredom of going into that much detail, Footie makes up a part of my overall trading activities so I can’t (dont want to) invest that much time into every fine detail, but you are doing good stuff there by looking for increased value like that. I am sure this will help some others on the site too, the analytic approach does pay off a bit more green for those prepared to do the work and testing.

  11. Hi Tim,

    I bought your ebook this week, and have to say that it is the best written trading ebook/system that I have ever bought, and I have bought a few over the years. My biggest weakness with trading has always been a lack of discipline with selections, and your selection process is brilliant and really very helpful. Well done on a brilliant book.

    One quick question if I may. What sort of strike rate do you expect to achieve with Wins v full losses v small losses?

    Thanks again for a great book.


    • Thanks very much Mick. I can’t remember how many years since I tracked exact strike rates, they can vary a lot over a season and certainly between seasons so after quite a few years I just stuck wih it as it was always profitable, sometimes a bit more or less than the season before, but always good over the long term 🙂
      Good luck there

    • Yes, can’t stand you Norwegians. 😀
      Joking of course, the only possible problem will be at Clickbank (payment processor). I have had one instance of this, I think that was from Sweden. If you email payments @, perhaps suggesting you feel racially slurred by their payment system, they may open up your IP and allow the purchase. If not, let me know via the contact form with your name and address and I will see if I can push them in the right direction, they are not very receptive unfortunately, another one of those “system is always right” problems, humans don’t seem to be allowed to override these problems sometimes, but I was told by Clickbank to get a customer to email them at the above address explaining the problem and they will look at it.

  12. Hi Tim! Long time i didn’t post anything here. But i almost double my bank laying the draw starting very small 330 euro bankroll and used 15% liability instead of stake, i think it’s time to use stake instead now 5%, today i hit 2nd loser since february 7 and took a bit far backed it 1.54 what a mess i did, anyway after 8 minutes it was a goal. Union Berlin-Nurnberg game it was. I didnt buy your ebook yet, but i certainly will do for next season, but so far i adjust to my own rules selecting matches and since 7th of february i had around 65 matches and 100% of them there was a goal, 98% of them goal was before minute 70, and 75% strike rate for a winning selections(were favourite scored first before min 70 mark). So 2% big losing trades and 23% small were dog scored first and i trade out(there was some cases were i stayed tho). As for money 30-50% a month return on bankroll, or in other words from total matches it comes around 1.2% ROI return on the match, my question here is this good winrate, strikerate and ROI from LTD trading? Here is the screenshot, start br 330:

    • Hi Dmitrij – That’s excellent, well done! Yes that is a good strike rate, and nearly doubling your bank in that time is great, try learning to do that reliably on stock trading and you will need quite a few years learning under your belt! :). Imagine what it would be with my ebook? hahaha, just joking, doesn’t sound like you need much help there. Keep up the good work.

  13. hi Tim, very interesting trading strategy. I am considering buying your E book but when I look at the type of games you outline for consideration of laying the draw, most of the time these matches start with the draw odds at around 6 to 8 which is too high a risk and these matches seem to take around 20 – 25 minutes before the odds come down to 4. For example the Spurs game v Watford I put a “keep” lay the draw in play at 4 and when the first goal went in on 33 minutes the odds were still 4.2 and I had an unmatched bet. I also tried the strategy on the Leicester v Sunderland game the other day when the draw was layable from the start, but then the draw got down to evens with 30 minutes to play which meant an early bale out with a 3rd of the game to play and of course Leicester went on to win 2-0.
    Also, I live in Oz and down here we have no live internet betting which means phoning Betfair for the lay off bet during play which can be frustrating. Also the games here are normally shown with a 2 to 3 minute delay. I remember seeing a while back someone promoted a site where you could select a game and if a goal was scored you could set an alarm to go off to let you know straight away. Have forgotten the site and not sure if you have come across this one by any chance?
    So to conclude, do most of your lays start at odds of around 4 or do you mostly wait for the odds to reach 4 before you bet? And, any advice for us punters down here in Australia who have the disadvantage of live phone betting only and the time delay we experience in games now we are with Optus streaming?

    • Hi Tony, hmm, a few tricky ones there. Firstly, if you need to phone betfair, I don’t like the sound of that. Have you looked into proxy servers or ideally the VPN service offered by TUVPN (google it). Not sure if it would work, but if you can log into Betfair via a UK IP address, it could work. Secondly, no I definitely do not trade games at 6-8 draw price. My ebook explains a lot more, but my max is around 4.5, sometimes I stretch to 5 in very rare cases.
      You said exiting “early” with 30 minutes left to play, that is a bit early but not by much. I don’t trade games to the last whistle. I trade out when the odds hit 2.0. There are plenty of qualifying games for my method, usually every day.
      The site you want is – live pings, or better still, FutBol24 app for iphone/android which is fast and alarms in your pocket 🙂

    • I trade anything where the stats have enough data and the markets have enough liquidity. You do need extra caution and the off season period can be harder to hit the same strike rates as mid season, which just shows the power of stats. Tennis and Horses can make sure you don’t get bored during the football downtime!

  14. Hi Tim, very interesting to learn about your approach to lay the draw strategy.

    Would it not make a viable sense to enter the trades later but stay in until the final whistle if no goal is scored?

    I have no data backing up my statement but is it not so that later in the match goal frequency is higher?

    Many thanks

    • Hi John,
      There are two factors at play in your question:

      1. Money/risk management
      2. Goal stats (specific to each trade/game)

      The idea is to limit risk of losses to a FIXED sum, based on percentage of bank account combined with confidence in the trade. In SOME games (quite rare), it may look better stats wise to trade the final 30, or maybe even 15 minutes. This is more what I do during in play opportunity hunting (looking for games which are 0-0 with not long to go, then check stats, then trade if I like what I see). For standard approach LTD, the key is to find games where there is a high likelihood of the favourite scoring 1 or 2 goals, and then being IN the trade for the longest possible period. In my experience the way to achieve this is to be in from the start, or often better still, wait around 5-10 minutes to suss the game and let the markets calm down then the draw price reduces unless its a very active game. Then get in, and stay in until around 60 minutes. This is the longest window for goals. If a game shows head to head stats favouring no goals until very late, it’s a no trade, unless you fancy a dabble very late, but its easy to lose money if the goals don’t come so it’s not a ‘standard’ approach of mine, just one I occasionally spot an opportunity for a half stakes dabble. Hope that helps.

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