Lay The Draw - How To Profit From LTD Strategy in 2024

Last updated: October 7, 2024

Laying The Draw is probably the most well-known Betfair strategy of all time.

It's popularity is partly due to the huge number of football fans, but also due to it being one of the most beginner-friendly ways to learn how to make consistent profits from trading football.

I have traded football for more years than I care to remember. When I first started this site over a decade ago now, I was trading full time every day using this strategy almost exclusively.

Over a year or two I adjusted and 'honed' my approach to maximise profits. As a result of the success of my published trades I got quite a few subscribers. Many asked me to outline my selection criteria and trading process. That's when this article was first published. Since then it has had a few minor changes but the core of the strategy remains exactly the same. It still works very nicely and it always will.

Below is everything you need to know about laying the draw on Betfair, from the classic 'vanilla' approach, to my 'fine-tuned' version, and even a few other variations I use occasionally.

Table Of Contents show

How Laying The Draw Works

I assume readers know what 'laying' means. If you don't, then I'd advise you to pause here and read my Betfair trading basics article first.

That will get you up to speed on how a betting exchange works, the differences between backing and laying, and some basic sports trading terminology.

In the simplest terms, to 'Lay The Draw' means to bet against a football match ending in a draw scoreline, be it 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, and so on.

You are betting that one team will beat the other by, er... scoring more goals! Easy so far? Good!

Trading The Draw vs Straight Betting

If you're thinking that betting against a draw doesn't sound very much like 'trading', you'd be 100% right! Collect £200 as you pass Go!

As you'd expect, there's a big difference between just laying the draw, and 'lay the draw trading'.

From a gambler's perspective, straight betting against a draw isn't a terrible bet in its own right. As traders we don't do it, because we're not gamblers, are we?! 😉

But a punter might not do too badly by just picking games at random, considering the statistics.

In the English Premier League, just 23% of football games end in a draw. This means over 75% of games don't! But that's enough about the 'merits' of gambling, before you get any silly ideas!

A 'bet' against a draw relies on the game actually ending with a non-draw scoreline. But, as lay the draw traders, we couldn't care less about the match outcome because our stake and winnings are completely removed from the market long before the end of the game.

Goals And Their Effect On Prices

More importantly, as traders we understand how the market behaves when a goal is scored.

The team that goes ahead has now become much more likely to win. As such their odds drop dramatically. The other team's odds increase dramatically too, as do the odds on the draw.

Considering the trading mantra: 'buy low, sell high' (or vice versa), we now have a known outcome:

Our trade wins a profit in the event of a goal, especially if the stronger team scores it.

There are 3 possible outcomes to a football match:

Team A Win
Team B Win
Draw

We target the draw because we have two ways to win (A or B winning), and one way to lose (no goals).

This chart shows how dramatic the price rise can be on the draw after goals are scored. In this case, there were actually two goals from Team A. Look how far the odds moved, that's all profit for a lay the draw trader!

What's more, there were two opportunities to take profits, depending on which style of LTD you're using.

This 'cause and effect' between goals and prices (odds) is what we're seeking when trading the draw. If we lay the draw in games where goals are likely, we can be in a position to profit from the change in odds when goals are scored.

And with some simple analysis of form, we can stack the deck in our favour to achieve a reliably successful strike rate. Before going into that, let's go through the basics of the LTD method.

The Mechanics Of A Trade

Here are the four steps involved in any successful LTD trade:

Place lay bet on the draw at suitable odds and at a suitable time.
Wait for a goal to be scored, maybe two depending on the chosen approach.
Back the draw at the new higher price, the difference being our 'green' (profit).
Green up so that we have an even profit across all possible outcomes.

How To Find Trades

Shortlisting

First we need to scour for suitable games. Games which look like they have potential just based on the draw price (odds). This is the fastest way to 'sift' through the often busy in-play football coupon on Betfair, ruling out any matches which are obviously unsuitable for trading the draw.

Pull up the 'Today's In Play' coupon on the Betfair football exchange (or "Tomorrow" if shortlisting for the next day).
Scan all scheduled matches to find any with odds on the draw of between 3.2 and 5.0 and where the home team is favourite.
Add those matches to your 'shortlist'. This can be a text document, spreadsheet, paper sticky note, diary or whatever else you find easiest.

Image: In this example, out of the 5 English Premier League matches today, 4 qualify on draw odds, but Bournemouth is ruled out as the away team is favourite. So only 3 of these qualify and I add them to my shortlist. We want to be as inclusive as possible at this stage. Remember this is just the EPL coupon, there will be many more games today in many other leagues around the world, so check the entire list.

Research: Form and Statistical Analysis

Now we have a shortlist of potentially tradeable games. They will definitely not all be trades.

Next we want to assess which ones have a good probability of goals. The way I do that is as follows:

Go to a football statistics website (Soccerstats or Soccerway) and find each shortlisted match.
Analyse the team stats, goal scoring stats, goal conceding stats and general form for both teams. (Tip: Check their Head2Head as well - if they often draw against each other, dump it.)

Trade Qualification Criteria

There's a lot of personal judgement needed at this point, and we no longer want to be 'inclusive'. On the contrary, we want to be as critical as possible, always leaning towards removing matches from our shortlist if any doubt exists about the form and stats. Some simple requirements are:

A strong home favourite who usually beats the away team, especially in the last 3 years.
Home team scores at least 1.5 goals per game (ideally 1.8+)
Home team concedes less than 1.25 goals per game (ideally less than 0.8)
Away team scores less than 1.25 goals per game (ideally less than 1.0)
Away team concedes more than 1.25 (ideally more than 1.5)

Quite a few games won't qualify and are ruled out. But just put an X next to them on the shortlist. Whilst they may not qualify for the "Classic" Lay the Draw strategy, they may well qualify for my personal twist on this method, as I'll explain later.

I'll give a few examples of stats analysis below, starting with one from today's Betfair coupon above.

Example 1

Home team ranked 7th in league, away ranked 10. Strong enough. Tick!
Home team scores at least 1.5 goals per game. Tick!
Home team concedes less than 1.25 goals per game (ideally less than 0.8) Tick!
Away team scores less than 1.25 goals per game (ideally less than 1.0) Tick!
Away team concedes more than 1.25 (ideally more than 1.5) Tick!

These aren't the strongest stats I've ever seen, but it scrapes in as a qualifier for a classic LTD trade.

Edit (an hour or two later!).... Ha! I still had the Betfair coupon in my browser and my eye caught the scoreline in this game after half an hour of play. No I wasn't trading it, I was busy typing this article instead! (You're welcome!) It turned out to be a nice trade, or would have!

Example 2

Pros:

Home team are ranked number 1 in the league
Home team scores 2.18 goals per game on average, 2 per game at home (most important stat).
Home team concedes very few goals at home (0.5)
Home team has never 'failed to score' at home, and are unbeaten at home this season.
Away team scores only 1 goal per game when playing away
Away team concede 1.6 goals per game (away)
Home team score a lot of their goals early (longest orange bar), making this ideal for a "Classic" Lay the Draw trade from kick off.

Cons:

Away team are ranked 3 in the league so they are a serious opponent, probably not a 'walkover'.
Away team score a lot at home, showing they are a good team and are quite capable of scoring.

Overall this looks a good pick, and this goes down as a definite qualifier for a (classic) LTD trade.

Note: There are more checks I make but this article can't go much deeper than it does already. If you want a complete course in how I trade the draw, see my LTD ebook.

Example 3

Lay The Draw Football Statistics Example

I'll talk you through this one, just to give you a bit more of my thinking during these checks.

First question: Is it a strong home team?

No, not really. The home team is ranked 10 in the league, the away team is ranked 9. So the away team is the slightly 'better' team overall, this season anyway.

Of course I'm sure they are not the better team when we take into account the "Home Advantage", i.e. a home team always plays much better with their fans all around them than they do at a hostile away game in front of only a small number of their own supporters. But it's still worth noting that the away team is every bit as good as the home team generally.

These teams are 'neighbours' in the league table, and generally I am very cautious of trading games like these as they can see fewer goals than usual, as the outcome can switch their positions in the league.

The goal stats all look fine, but the above point means I would probably be skipping this for a "classic lay the draw", at least until I have looked at other opportunities.

However: It does look perfect for one of my preferred 'twists' on the LTD method. More on that later, but the reasons why are:

Look at the orange bars. The home team score less than a quarter of all their goals in the first half.
Their 'Average Time First Goal Scored' is 56 minutes, 54 when playing away. They are slow starters, they win games (and score) in the 2nd half.
They score more than a third of all their goals in the last 15 minutes!

Result: No classic lay the draw trade here, but one to be mindful of later.

Ok so we now have a list of tradeable games, it's time to think about how to implement the trades.

Execution: Different Ways To Lay The Draw

There are quite a few variations of this strategy, and then there’s the way I do it, which varies a little as well! I'll explain them all below:

Classic 'Vanilla' Method

Open the trade by laying the draw before kick off, either on Betfair.com or via software such as Bet Angel.
Listen out for goals while you wait for the home team to (hopefully) score.
Exit (trade out) after the goal and hedge your green across all outcomes to guarantee an even profit whatever the result.
If no goals go in, plan to trade out at 70 mins or when the draw price reaches 2.0, whichever comes first.

More detail is given below, and fear not, I will be covering what to do if the 'dog' scores first!

Lay The Draw Exit Strategies

Novice Traders

You can take your money and run after the first goal, or you can wait (and hope) for a second. As a beginner trader you should pick one exit strategy and stick to it.

If you're choosing one, I'd recommend the 'exit after first goal'. You'll get more winning trades and your risk is reduced due to the shorter time you're in the market.

There is more profit potential with the second exit strategy, but there's more risk of getting in a mess (emotionally too). Save that for when you're more experienced and have a consistent strike rate.

Experienced Traders

I make a judgement call after the first goal, just based on how the game is playing combined with the strength of the home team scoring stats.

If they usually score 2+ goals per game, and if the game looks lively with lots of shots on target, I usually hold onto my trade until half time to trade out, often getting a second goal which will normally double the winnings for that trade, but of course risking losing a previously green trade.

N.B. If the second goal does come, I often use a different exit strategy: Instead of backing the draw to exit a lay the draw trade, you can 'lay the leader' instead, which has the same effect but with a nice little cherry on top:

In this example, the draw odds didn't move much so the profit (if I exited by backing the draw) wouldn't have been great. But the home team's odds were so short that there was more green available by laying them, and spot the little cherry on the top if the away team came back to win!

In fact, if they just equalised then their price would collapse and I would be able to bag quite a bit more green from this game, just for a 1-1 scoreline. Cheeky little number isn't it?! 🙂

If Neither Team Scores

If no goals are scored by either team then it's a losing trade, in which case you trade out when the draw odds reach 2.0 or whatever you decided based on your calculations and money management rules (*).

It's simply a percentage of your total trading bank, the max you're willing to risk per trade. (Think 1-2% for beginners.)

After opening a trade at whatever draw odds you got, you calculate what odds are the lowest you can go to risk your max loss sum.

That's your mental 'stop loss', the point where you get out no matter what. No dilly-dallying around, it's exit time. If you can't follow your own rules, you should get another line of work.

Tough love I know, but it's necessary. I do want you to succeed. 🙂

Disciplined exits make successful traders. Sloppy exits make poor people.

First Half Lay The Draw

This is basically just the classic method but applied only to the first half rather than the whole game.

As you saw above, your trade research will sometimes show strong scoring stats for the first half, with fewer goals likely in the second half. In these cases you can trade just the first half.

Note that a goal won't move the draw odds as much as it would in the second half, just because there's still a lot of gameplay left, so profits won't be as good. I don't use this very often.

Second Half Lay The Draw

As above but in this case the stats suggest the second half will be the most active half of the game. This is more common and offers much better profits, so I sometimes lay the draw at half time.

You 'sit out' the first half (ideally watching to get a feel for the game) and then enter your trade at half time, planning to exit either at a pre-determined draw price, or you can just let it run to the end.

Whilst it feels a little naughty, it's actually not such a bad idea because many games do see goals in those final few minutes, especially when the teams are drawing.

A goal is almost a guaranteed death blow and instant 3 points instead of 1 for a draw, so even the dullest of games can suddenly light up near the final whistle! Want an example? Feast your eyes on this...

But if you're going to start looking for a good 'trading window' rather than trading the whole game, you may as well go further and use my approach explained below. I put a lot of time, research, and money into fine-tuning my way of laying the draw, making it work as profitably as possible over the long-term. So I hope you'll enjoy the next section!

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My Version Of The Strategy

There are three ways I might approach any LTD trade. The first is just my version of the classic method outlined above which is good and does work nicely, but there's always room (and need sometimes) for variations.

I choose between the two other strategies depending on:

The hours I'm at my computer
The number of trades I'll be managing at once in a trading session
Whether I'm planning to trade pre-match (from kick off), or...
Looking for In-Play opportunities, usually due to already having more than enough classic trades already running.

Here are my two other approaches, which both work well:

1 - Goal Stats Window

During the stats analysis phase, it's quite common to find periods (of usually 15-20 minutes) where a team is very active, whether scoring or conceding (both are equally important to me). This is my 'window' of opportunity, and I sometimes only trade that period.

Whilst there's usually no shortage of standard lay the draw trades, some matches just don't qualify based on the pre-match checks. However some may have noteworthy statistics where, ideally, one team scores around the same time that their opponents often concede.

This would be a prime pick to trade the 'stats window', usually a period of between 10 and 30 minutes.

In such cases I run my LTD trade tightly inside that window and, by learning the hard way, I'm (now) religious about getting out when that period ends. No hanging on, pretending I can't reach my mouse, popping to the loo to snatch a few more minutes... (Yes, I used to play tricks on myself all the time!)

2 - In Play Goal Alerts

Back when I was posting my lay the draw 'tips' on the site, I engaged with other traders a fair bit, and this sometimes led to someone alerting me to an In Play lay the draw opportunity.

At first it was frustrating as I already had enough to do, but it was hard to pass up what was often a very clear opportunity for getting easy 'value' from the football markets.

More importantly, I saw my profits increase significantly as a result of these 'on the fly' LTD trades. It soon became my favourite approach to this strategy.

How to lay the draw in-play

I use a goal alerts site (or app) like WS or Futbol24 to monitor all live games. This pings me when a goal is scored in any game worldwide.

Here are the specific 'setups' I am interested in:

Any game with goals that becomes a draw in-play. For instance if Chelsea just scored back against Man U, making the game 1-1.
Any game which is drawing at 35-40 minutes, including a no score draw (0-0).
Any game which is drawing at 80 minutes. (This is a particular favourite as so many games see late goals, and the risks are minimised due to the low entry odds).

If I spot any of those setups, I go straight to the stats for that game and check:

Whether the game is inconsistent with the stats. A good example is seeing a game is 0-0 at 80 minutes, yet the stats suggest the game should see 2-3 goals.
Whether there's a likelihood of more goals (by analysing the scoring and conceding periods of both teams)
Whether there's any other reason to expect a goal. (i.e. a red card)

Watching some of the game is a great way to get a feel for the run of play, and I will do that whenever possible to whilst deciding if it's tradeable.

If all looks good, I then lay the draw and stay in that trade either until the final whistle (if entering at 80 minutes) or, if entering earlier, I plan to exit around the 70-80 minute mark if no more goals are scored.

Why Is It My Favourite Type Of LTD Trade?

What I love most about this approach is the risk reward ratio, as it's heavily stacked in a trader's favour.

With the standard approach to laying the draw (and I must say again: which does work well!) you look for the same stats picture, but you risk more because the odds you lay the draw at are usually pretty high at kick off.

But with this approach, you're waiting until the deck is stacked in your favour (and against other LTD traders!) and only finding the trade setups when you're already in a strongly advantageous position.

The risks are reduced, the potential profits are increased significantly.

I had one once where I got in on a superb game that was 2-2 before half time!

I thought: "There's no way that hasn't got more goals in it!", and the stats backed it up.

I entered my lay the draw, took my profit after it went 3-2, then entered again when it went 3-3, then banked a load more green when it went 3-4!

I sat out after that (temptation is an enemy we must vanquish!) and I can't remember what happened but I'm pretty sure there were even more goals! One game like that can produce as much profit as three successful 'classic' LTD trades.

This approach also sometimes makes it possible to get involved in games that I normally wouldn't due to a very high draw price, such as this one:

Not an impressive trade, but a good example. I noticed the early 1-1 scoreline, giving me a chance to LTD when it would otherwise have been too expensive. Madrid were massive favourites and expected to score many goals. As it turned out, the underdogs scored to go 2-1, and there was still plenty of profit to make it worthwhile. A Madrid goal would have seen me easily bank well over £200, but green is green.

How Much To Stake?

I will give some information on this but please understand: This is a decision for you and you alone.

We all have different bank sizes, strike rates, experience levels etc. Also, we all vary emotionally, and have very different appetites for risk.

Beginner Staking

This will be covered in my forthcoming article on bank management *. Your stake should be calculated based on your realistic worst case scenario from a trade, i.e. the max potential loss.

Generally I think risking 1% of your trading bank is more than enough when learning.

Increase stakes as your success and bank grows, not before.

Experienced Staking

On a fully qualifying 'classic' lay the draw trade, I usually stake up to 5% of my bank.

That's pretty high and I spent a long time on 1% or 2% stakes until I knew my selections held up over the long term.

I do use smaller stakes, between 1%-3%, in various situations such as when I have some reservations about a trade (but still want to go ahead), if the odds are not ideal, or if trading a short stats window.

Calculate Stake by Stop Loss

To explain the numbers, let's say I lay the draw for a £200 stake at odds of 4.0.

My total liability is £600. But this is irrelevant.

The important point is this:

If I exit at my stop loss point of 2.0 (by backing the draw @ 2 for £200 and then 'redding up'), my total liability is £200.

Note: If I enter by laying at odds of 5.0, and no goals come so I exit @ 2.0, my max loss is then £300.

So it all depends on the odds of entry and exit, you can't calculate a correct stake (according to % of bank risked) without knowing these numbers. Hence why every trade should be planned carefully beforehand to avoid overstaking.

What If The Underdog Scores First?

Many LTD traders consider this their arch enemy, however I don't. A game that's as dull as ditchwater with no goals and hardly any shots on target, that's what I hate most!

Above all the thing to remember is to control your emotions. There's nothing that kills a trader faster than loss of emotional control.

When the underdog scores first you have various options:

Instant Exit

Close the trade immediately.

Then close the market/browser tab, you don't need any temptation to start 'revenge trading'!

This is the best approach for a beginner, and for many professionals too. I did it myself for quite a few years.

Remember this is trading, and it wouldn't exist without the risk of losing, and that means the reality of losing!

Just treat it as part and parcel of business. Dealing with losing trades swiftly and calmly is the simple solution. Focus on keeping your strike rate as high as possible, and making losing trades cost you as little as possible.

Wait And See

You can hold your position, maybe watch some of the game if possible, and make a slower decision on what to do.

If so you should also double check the match stats, just in case you overlooked something. You are not actually in a losing position remember. You bet against the draw, and it isn't a draw, so there's no need to panic.

What I tend to do is judge the gameplay and see how the teams both respond to the 'surprise' lead the underdog now has.

Sometimes the goal gives the dog more confidence and they score again. More often the home team quickly equalise, in which case you're back where you started, it's a draw again and the trade continues.

The danger with this approach is waiting while the dog has the lead, and holding until too late in the game. This takes you into the dangerous last 20-30 minutes where, if the favourite equalises, the odds can instantly drop below your pre-determined stop loss point (in odds).

This is one of the few ways you can end up losing more than expected, so my advice is never to hold on much past half time with the dog 1-0 up.

What If The Underdog Equalises?

If you're not automatically exiting after the stronger team score, you may find yourself in this situation. You had a winning trade at 1-0 to the favourite, but before you exited the trade, the dog scored one back.

Depending on how long is left in the game, you can either take it as a loss and exit, or you can hold for a third goal. Again it comes down to the run of the game (if watching) and the stats. Stats are always king though, so never ignore those.

Example Lay The Draw Trade

There are countless examples of me laying the draw on my blog and many more in my ebook, so you already have a good idea what a standard trade looks like.

However, I found a good example of a slightly unorthadox In-Play LTD trade, and it covers many of the points mentioned above.

Unfortunately I don't have a copy of the goal stats, but they were heavily suggesting a game full of goals, with a home win for the strongly fancied Atletico Madrid.

My livescores alerted me to an unexpected goal from the underdog within a few minutes of kick off. I looked at the stats and made a very rare decision to lay the draw in the game.

Basically, the odds were so short on the home team beforehand, as they were so strongly fancied to win, that even at 0-1 down the draw price was low.

I therefore laid the draw at 0-1 (hardly ever do that) and waited. I was expecting to have the option of a small profit when the home team equalised (due to being so strongly fancied, the draw odds would increase), or a much bigger profit if they scored two to take the lead. That's what happened:

I traded out using my 'lay the leader' exit strategy. And this turned out to be a great decision, because somewhat incredibly this underdog only went and scored again!

I greened some and then laid the draw again at 2-2. But due to the alternative exit strategy, I had semi-banked some green from that, so this second lay the draw trade had much less potential downside:

Due to dinner plans, I intended to leave it to a full bet at this point so that I could leave the office. £42.50 risk was way below my usual acceptable risk, and peanuts against the upside if either team scored again, and the stats certainly suggested that was highly likely.

A short while later, along came the expected 5th goal to take the game 3-2. I happened to get an alert on my phone so I popped back to the computer again, placed some bets to partially green my posotion, and left it looking like this:

I could easily see Levante scoring again (their striker was playing brilliantly too) so I didn't green up fully. I was happy to leave it at that, and that's how it ended.

It isn't a typical trade, not by a long chalk! But it does show how all is not necessarily lost when things don't go quite how the stats suggest. More importantly, it shows how you can 'use' a market that's in 'shock' from some unexpected events.

Hedging or ‘Insurance’ For LTD Trades

Many people talk about this, too much in my opinion. Some people literally obsess over it!

I don't take out 'insurance' on my trades.

That's not to say it doesn't have some merit as an idea, I just don't find it helps. My strike rate works as it is, buying insurance just costs me green and saves me some red, not a lot of difference in my view.

The common way to 'hedge' a trade is with the 'lay the draw and back 0-0' method.

The trouble is, many people then think "what if it goes 1-1"? And so they back that too. More insurance, great!

Then they wonder about 2-2, and before long you've spent your entire green (which you haven't yet earned!) on 'hedging'.

Risk is part of trading. If you're trying to find any possible way to avoid it, you're not really getting the whole 'trading' thing are you?!

The idea is to manage risk, while taking some in order to win profits. I manage risk by being ultra selective with my trade picks, taking logical decisions to bank green whenever it makes sense to do so, and avoiding silly mistakes.

That's my risk management taken care of. I'm happy to take the rest of the risks on the chin, and the rewards too! Laying the draw is a perfectly viable method, so just give it space to work!

Ok if you insist, I will 'allow' you to place a small bet on 0-0, just occasionally when you're laying the draw at high odds, if you really must! Happy now? Good.

Maximise Profits by Fine Tuning

As you practice and get better at choosing trades, you will see your profits grow.

But the fastest way to increase your trading profits, is to take notes of all your trades, and look for 'leaks' in your game (to borrow a phrase from Poker).

I know that sounds boring, but it's where the gold is, and that applies to any type of trading.

You might spot weird stuff (like I once did) where you're consistently losing money on Turkish football games! I couldn't explain it, but it did happen for a good season or two.

What to do with this information? Stop trading Turkish games, perhaps?

I did, and the result was what you'd expect, more consistent bank growth. I'm not suggesting you avoid Turkish games, especially this many years later! But you get the point.

I analysed my results quite religiously while learning and found lots of things worth avoiding. Here's a few examples you can have for free! And I would advise you to avoid laying the draw in these games:

Cup Games

Stats are limited or non-existent and teams don't always field their best players. They are unreliable for lay the draw trading.

Wet Weather

Who likes a horrible wet day out in the rain?

Well, shock horror, even their insane wages doesn't make footballers immune to feeling the same way! But it doesn't stop there...

Rain (and snow/ice) also affect the ball. It makes it harder to pass as accurately and generally makes games sloppier and less likely to align with the stats.

Fans are also affected of course, and since we prefer home favourites, we understand the massive influence supporters can have on their team's play. Rain brings smaller and less enthusiastic crowds.

I don't avoid games just because it's raining, but I do factor it in when trading. So I might reduce stakes, or wait and watch to see how the game is affected.

Benched Star Players

All teams have their 'star' players, usually a striker with too many earrings and a very pretty girlfriend. You usually know who they are.

A quick check of the team sheet or soccer news sites will tell you if a key player is starting 'on the bench' (not playing).

Think Rooney, Ronaldo, Messi, Cantona, Charlton (oops, forgive me, I must be gettin' old!)

I have seen teams play without their star strikers and sometimes the difference is night and day, not always, but enough for me to take notice.

It's rare that I'd avoid a trade due to this, but it does happen, usually when I already have some reservations, maybe when the stats only just scrape through to qualify a trade.

Derby Games

This is a big one, and I do often avoid these.

In case you're not aware, a "Derby game" is when two teams from the same town play each other.

These events are historically famed for fan violence, but still carry plenty of animosity and rivalry.

More to the point, it often seems that the teams are more concerned about losing to their arch rivals, than actually beating them!

As a result the games are often very tight affairs and worth avoiding from a trading perspective.

League Neighbours

This is almost identical to the Derby issue.

Two teams who sit next to each other in the league table, they have a lot more to lose in a game. It's well known that many of these types of games see both teams just 'happy with a point'. Which means happy with a draw! As we are not happy with a draw, we can avoid them.

I don't avoid them completely, but I do very late in the season when their league positions are vital to their hopes for the following year, and any relegation risks they might face.

Discipline Is The Key To Success

I really can't emphasise this enough. It applies to all trading but especially to laying the draw.

Set yourself some rules (use mine, that's what the article's here for!) and get used to sticking to them.

Temptation is everywhere in these markets.

Our worst enemy, as traders, is ourselves. That really is the truth. The markets don't hate you, don't sabotage you, don't goad you, don't taunt you...

We do that all by ourselves.

I have known many traders, not just those trading sports but many who trade commodities and stocks too. One thing I have learned is:

The most successful traders are always the ones with the most self-discipline and emotional control.

Summary

I hope this article was useful for you. You now have more than enough information to get started with laying the draw, and profitably too.

It's really not that hard if you can follow the rules and practice analysing the stats carefully and without any bias to try to force a trade where there isn't one.

As an old football trader friend of mine used to say:

"If you study enough form, eventually a match will jump off the page and shout TRADE ME!"

That is so true. And once it happens, you begin to see just how selective you need to be to optimise your strike rate, and therefore your profitability.

My own approach is ultra-selective, only risking my bank when I can't find any logical reason not to.

That approach has stood the test of time for me, and has impressed many of my readers too.

Four years after I posted this article, I published my LTD ebook.

It has helped more people than I could ever have hoped for, and many of them were at the point of giving up and believing the silly comments that somehow this method 'doesn't work any more'.

What a silly statement indeed!

I doubled my trading bank two seasons running early in my trading career, pretty much only using the lay the draw strategy with my personal angles, rules and criteria.

That's when I knew I had found a winning selection process. I sincerely hope you find yours, and I hope I can play a major role in that.

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