Spain is priced at 1.06. As we can see from Germany last night, nothing is very ordinary about these big international qualifiers and friendlies, hence why I never trade them with the LTD strategy or any other in-play method which relies on a strong performance from the favourites.
However, maybe I am just itching to find a trade but I had an idea here. Spain are priced so low, they could be laid on Betfair for a grand at 1.06 with a total liability of only £60.
They would only need to pass the ball around for about 10-20 minutes max in my view, before the odds would rise with the clock ticking as always happens.
The odds would only need to climb to 1.12 to leave me in a position where I could then back the grand on Spain (1.12) and have a £60 free bet on Spain....
Better still, being a sports trader and not a gambler, I could just green it up to a healthy £53 guaranteed (who knows, maybe Luxembourg will do a Poland?!)...
So this leaves me with a decision, can Luxembourg hold off Spain for 10 or 15 minutes or so, and more importantly, are the chances on that better than 50%?
Why? Because my trade idea is a 50/50 win or lose. I either win £60 (approx) or lose £60.
I am not sure but I kind of feel the way these games are going, Spain could easily just mess around for a good half hour or maybe even an hour.
It's one of those judgement calls where luck and guesswork do come into it, a bit like Poker, but also like Poker, there are odds and calculations you can guesstimate in order to be as scientific as possible about it. Then comes the question, what about making it double the green?
In other words waiting for the odds to get up to 1.21 and taking double the liability in green £120?
These decisions can only be made when seeing the game live and watching how the play is going. Spain could come out and try to score immediately, but it isn't like them in my view.
If they did, I would just take a few ticks for my time and leave it at that, a small win or of course a possible £60 loss if they score from the kick off (trading always has a downside, without it there is no possible upside!).
If however as I suspect they might, Spain just dither around with a weaker than normal team line up and little motivation to get ahead early, knowing they will be able to win the game nearer the end and not tire themselves out too much early on, I could sit and wait for a nice £120 profit.
Time will tell whether I take the trade at all, and whether I have a live stream to watch and decide to sit it out or just do a small scalp after a few minutes.
There is nothing else worth a mention today from a football trades perspective, so if I go ahead with the above I will update later.
Just sharing my thoughts as some of you have asked me to do this season when I can.