Football trading in these strange times... and a coupon correction

Sunday, 6 December 2020, 10:46

Morning all. Hope you've been to church on this sunny Sunday! 😀

avid fansA quick word about the peculiar footie of late, minus the crowds. I have had a few emails from people over the past week asking about stakes and how they are getting less predictable results from the stats etc. I have also had a chance to chat with an old friend who is now trading Betfair football full-time, and was interested to hear his take on things, which are similar to mine.

The lack of crowds is a big factor in trading. As any readers of my laying the draw soccer trading course will know, as I have written about it for years, footballers are a vanity-inflicted bunch. And I am not just talking about ear-rings and fancy motors.

These people (just like all sports people really, but perhaps a bit more so) are extremely sensitive to having vocal and enthusiastic supporters cheering them on. One look at any team's home results versus their away results will reveal just how much of an impact a large supportive crowd has on their play, and their team's results.

ertEven the best teams in the world tend to have a much higher goal scoring average when playing in front of a home crowd, versus playing in front of their opponent's home crowd. Many teams often have double the goal scoring average when playing at home.

I have said this many times over the years but it's worth repeating now I think, I always treat the first 4-6 weeks of any normal football season with kid gloves, in other words... half stakes. Once the season is in full swing, I only then release my full liabilities on my trades. I want to see the stats build up based on real game play, as recently as possible.

I think it's wise to treat all "covid" games just as I would treat any season starting period in any normal year. Half stakes. Furthermore, I think extra cautious trading in general is called for. This means your max discipline on entries and exits, and a general approach of 'defensiveness' in your trades.

There is no question that trading these Betfair markets is more than possible, but with my mantra of 'first protect your Betfair bank', it makes sense to deem this entire covid hysteria period as a period of increased risk of losses, and unexpected results. Finally, you should consider the effect this hysteria is having not only on footballers, but on other traders. Everyone is cautious, nervous even, so you need to factor that into your trading and your expectations for where the markets will go.

I am pleased to see that the goals and in-game events are still creating the same profit (and loss) opportunities as they always have, by that I mean the odds are moving by the normal 'expected' amounts when a goal is scored, when there's a red card, and so on. So sensible football trading is perfectly fine, but I think halving your stakes is a wise move until things get back to.... well I can hardly bring myself to say 'normal' as we are constantly being programmed with the phrase 'new normal'! But you get my point I hope.

Who knows, maybe this 'new normal' means no more football crowds, or maybe only crowds who have been 'vaccinated' and have their 'I am clean' stamp on their new citizen passport, or whatever else they have in store for us loyal 'subjects'!

kjkAlso, a few people asked me if I could extend the discount over the Xmas period as they are too busy to do any studying until then. I only then realised I made the discount expire on 1st December. That was meant to be 1st January! Sorry. I am editing that now, and will add a few 'hangover recovery' days.

The code to use is STALINISM and it will provide 20% off any of my betfair trading ebooks until 3rd January, plenty of time to say good bye to Grannie (through a plastic sheet of course, duh), tidy up the house, and get your computer open ready to tackle the brave new and curious world I am sure 2021 will be!

Take care everyone, and do try your best to defy the powers that be and enjoy yourself! UKFT out!



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