Friday 21 October
Quite a heavy process of football trade selection today...
Monaco v Montpellier
This looks good. It's either a kick off trade or a half time trade, or for some perhaps a half stake @ KO and add to it at HT if 0-0.
However, it's strong enough and cheap enough to be in from the KO in my view so I will be.
This looks good, very good, but its pricey, and there is one big fly in the ointment which is that only 4 days ago they played each other and St Patricks put 3 goals past Cork which, if this was worth the price (5) I would say that would knock my confidence in a trade.
So this is a leave alone job, unless a better opportunity comes up in play.
This game has me scratching my head.
It isn't a trade, but it looked it on the odds, until I saw the league positions which baffle me! The goal stats suggest this has a strong chance of being a draw, so I ain't touching it.
In play opportunities could come up there, if the home team go ahead, certainly if 2-0 up, I may be looking at laying them with small stakes.
RKX Waalwijk v Achilles 29
This is massively overpriced, but if it's 0-0 at 60 minutes it could offer some value to LTD or lay U2.5.
Le Havre v Ajaccio
This is borderline on the stats, but I do think Le Havre should manage some goals here based on who they have scored against and how the Ajaccio's form looks so dismal.
But the price is good at 3.65 and that offers a long trade from KO with much less risk than usual, so despite not being blown away by the goal stats, I think this has value as a KO trade at this price.
Breda v Fortuna
One of the most overpriced draws I have seen in a long time.
I am half tempted to back the draw for 30 minutes just to ride that price collapse when/if it is as dull as the home form and stats suggest it should be!
But I wont be doing that, instead I might just look for a way to take advantage in play, if an op comes up.
Stuttgart v Munich
Slightly higher price than I would like, but I do like the stats and form so I am going to go for this one from KO.
HT may be a better entry for someone trying to preserve funds/reduce risk.
i agree about monaco game and i defenatly will have a look at stuttgart
Agree with Karim - both games look good. Looking to get in at KO on Monaco and at HT on Stuttgart if still 0-0.
i actually looked at the stats for all the games and i agree 10000000% on all of them
great stuff thank you
Missed the Stuttgart game - they didn't wait til HT to score but I greened up nicely on the Monaco game. I have to admit being risk averse that I am ultra selective & therefore I don't take all of the trades mentioned. I take 2 maximum during the week - more on the weekend. Top tipping again today Tim - you have really helped to turn my football trading around since I found your site - I can't thank you enough for that.
That should read - during the week I take a maximum of 2 trades a day.
Good to hear you're progressing James thanks! Top tipping - MOI?! No tipping service here, just a diary 🙂
Yes risk averse is a very wise approach. Overall I find being cautious and having extremely high standards to take a trade, causes quite a few green trades to be missed, but definitely far more red ones to be missed also. It was a process of around 2 years where I really learned this. At one point I did as many other LTD traders do, and traded just about any odds on home team game. It seemed fantastic and I made a lot of green for a long period, but when lady luck came along to give me a kicking, I found it extremely miserable as red after red stacked up. That was when I tried being more selective and it was less "boom and bust", and far more relaxed and gradually profitable. I don't have days where I make a fortune on LTD like I used to, but I also don't have days where I lose huge chunks of my bank on a string of unlucky losers in a row. In short, it removes much more of the luck factor and for me, having had some extremely crappy luck at times in the past, that is worth its weight in gold! If I lose on a trade now, I can put it down to the law of averages, not me being greedy or trying to find too many trades. I definitely prefer it, but everyone has a different appetite for risk and I can say with certainty that people do have varying degrees of luck both in life and in trading. I have known some very lucky people who just seem to never be able to do anything wrong! I know most traders say this is rubbish, "it all evens out in the end". Perhaps thats true over a lifetime, but I really have seen (and know one person in particular) who says himself "I can't do anything wrong, I am just lucky and always have been". I can't say that unfortunately, but this means I have to trade better, and that must be a skill worth having in the long run regardless of lady luck's little games!
Trading is a bit like boxing, every day, every bout, begins with "protect yourself at all times". 😀
Yes - I like that analogy to boxing. I like to trade defensively! I think that style helps bring about more consistency in the long term & less of the "boom and bust" that you mention. I don't like relying on lady luck as she can be rather fickle. I'd much rather make my own "luck" by having a good reliable system and combine it with selecting only the very best trades. The more I have done that, the luckier I have become!
Yes nicely put! I have found the exact same experience.