My site contains NO TRADING ADVICE OF ANY KIND! That applies to this post as well as all others!
Thanks to Dom for this one....
Betfair exchange "next England manager" market states in the terms and conditions that an interim manager who completes 3 full international games as manager including friendlies "will be considered to have been appointed as next head coach for the purpose of this market and betfair will settle the market accordingly on that person"
The FA announced yesterday that Gereth Southgate will be interim manager for the next 4 England games. Link
Current price is around 1.3 (at time of posting this).
Looking at the next 4 games, the first 3 are fairly easy ones with England playing Malta, Slovenia and Scotland, before their fourth game which is against Spain. I think the chances of the FA sacking Southgate earlier than 3 games in having just committed to giving him the role for four games, are very slim.
Of course nothing in life is without risk, if Southgate hates the job and runs away (unlikely but possible), if he gets drowned in a sea fishing accident (unlikely but possible), if he..... you get the idea.
But if he stays in post for 3 games, this is as close to free money as it gets. I am a bit curious as to why the Betfair market hasn't been suspended since this news came out yesterday, but I have also seen similar incidents in the past where so-called guaranteed bets were available, and remember Betfair doesn't lose here they actually gain, it's the people on the lay side of the bet who lose, IF he sits out 3 games.
Just a heads up for those interested in these sorts of markets. I don't advise anyone to trade, but I do advise everyone to check terms and conditions very carefully when placing any bet like this, they can have small hooks which can cost you later. Heads up over and out!
And I will end with another reminder that I run this Betfair trading diary just to show people what I am doing, not as any kind of advice. See the disclaimer and site terms and conditions via the UKFT homepage.