Monday 12th of December

Monday, 12 December 2016, 12:37

Even though I am not sure I will be trading, I have had a quick look at the coupon for footie trades today:

Roma versus Milan

The goal stats certainly look good for a home win, but  the form of both teams suggests Milan could cause problems here. Therefore I think, despite being tempted to ltd at what is a reasonable price, I would be more inclined to wait and hope for a level scoreline later in the game, ideally below 3 when goals from either team will give a green trade.

Both teams could score heavily here and a traditional ltd requires a week away team who will concede goals. Milan may well concede goals but they are a quality team and league neighbours to Roma, so there is a heightened risk of a cagey game but also a risk of goals from both sides.

Therefore an opportunity in play is more attractive than a kickoff trade for me.

Fiorentina versus Sampdoria

The stats here suggest low scoring, especially early on.

This looks like a perfect setup to trade the first 20 to 30 minutes in one of various ways. Backing Under 2.5 goals,  laying over 2.5 goals, backing the draw, or perhaps best of all laying the home team.

A lay at odds-on is always more attractive to me. Laying the home team adds the benefit of a goal from Sampdoria causing a big green. But obviously as the risk of a home goal causing a quick red.

Laying over 2.5 goals, has the benefit of an early goal not being necessarily the end of the trade, as no further goals would quickly lead the odds back to break even for a no lose trade.

I'm not entirely sure what I would do here, I think I would lay Fiorentina for 20 to 30 minutes but watch the game closely and if they were firing in shots I would probably be getting out around 15 to 20 minutes. Or of course the other obvious option which is often overlooked is to not look for a trade, and just sit out.

Bolton versus Gillingham

Again this is not an absolutely perfect pick, as the away team are likely to score goals here, one or two I suspect.

However Bolton are on a very good run of form and could score early which is always a bonus for ltd trades.

At a price of 4 I think it's a reasonable kick-off trade and would probably take it from the off. This does have the potential to become a 0-2 lay of the away team so again it isn't perfect but it has enough trading profit potential to satisfy me.

I can't promise to do updates every day as this has taken me quite a while but as and when I have an hour spare to do what used to take me 10 minutes I will post updates!

6 comments on “Monday 12th of December”

  1. Hi Tim,
    Really sorry to hear about your hand problems. I do hope you are not in to much pain and that your recovery is a swift one.
    The updates you post are very much appreciated.

  2. Hi Tim, I am a Gillingham fan and can't call this, our form in from of the TV cameras is dire in recent times, but, we have usually been the favourite to win and ballsed up so it would not actually surprise me to go away to Bolton and get a win, we are well rested having not played for 2 weeks, id fancy a over 2.5 goals although our defence has been a lot tighter since Cargill (CB on loan from Bournemouth) has been in the starting line up.

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