Sunday proper update
Fiorentina v Palermo
Unbelievable price, over 6 on the draw yet home team score 0.67 goals per game and their best result is 1-0 all season!
I am sorely tempted to back the draw for 20 minutes there, but I tend not to do this any more even though I used to do it with quite good success.
I just dont enjoy trading where a home goal wipes my trade out, more a choice than a trading decision.
Having said that, this game has shock written all over it, but I will leave it alone if i can't find a low risk way in as they could break their average goal stats heavily against this team. Inplay trading opportunity only, possibly
Genk v Lokoren
A bit pricy, but they are on a great run of home form and should win easily.
However they are not scoring well enough to justify the 4.4 draw price, so I wil be considering a LTD later on during the game if its level around 35-45 mins
Midtjylland v AGF
Not too impressive, but it looks like a busier second half. May take a position or LTD at HT if level.
Ajax
I was interested until I noticed the price. Sod that! No trade there unless something weird happens.
Bournemouth v Liverpool
Made a substantial profit today on this game, but have to mentioned I still feel a bit gutted.
I had a big lay bet just going onto Liverpool at 2-3, it was down around 1.05. I was in the queue to get matched and if i had, I had a green on B and the draw which had quite a few zeros after it.
Literally 1-2 seconds needed to get matched, and I would have been partying tonight. I still made a very fat green as they let the game go as I had a feeling they would, but that was 2 seconds away from a day to remember for a very long time!
I keep saying it, when you get an idea of doing something, either cancel it, or DO IT INSTANTLY! Lady luck has a way of punishing you for dilly dallying in this game!
Certainly not complaining though, that would be silly. (and greedy)
Cheers,
Fiorentina match. Would an alternative to backing draw then laying off after 20 mins if still 0-0 be to lay Fiorentina then back if no score after 20 mins or so? Increases possibility of green if Palermo take shock lead as well.
Yes definitely, there are various ways to do it, including backing correct score. Many years ago I looked into it and found the biggest time decay on a 0-0 is on the draw market when it starts off high priced. Also a goal from away team would have seen a nice drop in odds as well. Doing it your way would definitely be another way of doing and i have done it with success, usually when i think an away goal is quite likely.