Thursday 8 December

Thursday, 8 December 2016, 13:58

Well I can see nothing of interest today at as far as the conventional lay the draw method goes. Will update if I see any in play opportunities, but need to avoid these internationals as much as possible I think. Unreliable for trading in my view.

A UKFT reader (Craig) asked me to look at the Palestino v ColoColo game in the Chilean Premier league. Ok Craig a few thoughts:

I have never traded the Chilean league. This isn't a negative as such, but makes me slightly wary as I don't know much about it. There is certainly plenty of liquidity with 31k matched at time of writing.

I have looked at this and I understand your thoughts. 1.5 is cheap, and there could be a period without goals or an upset away goal.

However, at 1.5, I don't think the risk v reward balance is good enough to risk half your entire stake on that outcome, as i think its less than a 50% likelihood.

In fact I would take this as a LTD if it were below 4 which of course it isn't. I think this has 2-0 at HT written all over it.

I understand your comments about it possibly being a "bogey" game (home team could slip up), but for me I think they look quite strong. You have placed quite a bit of emphasis on the long term H2H between these 2 teams. Personally, while I do obviously take that into consideration, I place more weight on the most recent games. By far the most importance should be placed on their last meeting back in April, where Palestino won 3-1 away, 2-0 at home November 2015.

It's over 2 years since Colo beat them, and yes that was away from home, but without checking the detailed team stuff, the teams could be entirely different since then. I do agree with you that the all time goal stats between these teams are heavily in favour of Colo, but I am not sure if that's a valid and relevant stat, or just your attempt to find something to back up your inner voice telling you this home team is cheap and needs laying!!

Don't get me wrong, I can see why you could be right and Colo could give them trouble, just not sure there is enough evidence to trade on that view.

A look at the home form recently, and against whom those games were (league positions), then a look at the same thing for the away team, I think this confirms the home team are strong and its that recent strength which has pushed the odds up too high on the draw for a LTD trade (or in fact pushed the home team odds so short that the draw had to drift to balance the book).

Punters have short memories, so the recency is part of the price here, but I am not sure I would want to go against it in this instance. There are certainly arguments for your idea of laying the home team for a period, but which period? And even if you choose a period, are you confident (enough) that you have more than a 50% chance of choosing a period without goals?

Much more importantly, this is a time decay trade, so you will not earn 100%, therefore its not a 50/50 trade as the odds suggest, but is actually far less rewarding than that, as the time decay will just earn you ticks, maybe 10, maybe 20, maybe even 30, but do the maths on that for say a £100 lay, and see what you will be greening, versus the risk of that home goal going in and probably facing a full losing trade.

Yes you could trade out of course, but with odds this low already, a 1-0 scoreline will be hard to exit (especially as the away team may equalise and that temptation will be hard to resist for most traders, don't know about you of course!).


Overall, your comments suggest to me that you are trying to "find a trade" in this game, when for me there just isn't one, not one with enough value to merit the risk anyway.

A 0-0 HT scoreline, that would be a trade for me as I would LTD here at that point. Likewise a 0-2 scoreline would be a lay all day for me, but highly unlikely. I might even be tempted to lay the away team at 0-1, I am fairly confident in the home team here as you can see.

Of course I could get it completely wrong, that's the beauty of trading on Betfair, there is no way to know the future so we just have to take a judgement, stand by it, and learn from it either way. Knowing my luck it will end up 0-0 at 90 minutes and you will be cursing me :D, but whats important is how we decide to do before hand not after, so that's my tuppence for what its worth (about tuppence probably!)

P.S. - Just a thought, IF I was confident of an away team giving the home team some real stick here, I might even be interested in a lay of the home team after an early goal, as odds often come very low when the goal is in the first 20, call it a punter over-reaction "told ya they would slaughter em!" and everyone piles in forcing price down.

Then the backers are all in, the layers take over and the price can drift on a 1-0 scoreline if it stays that way for a while, but more importantly you have a less than half overall risk (compared to doing it at KO) and you have a much bigger up side if the away team scores. Sorry, I am now doing that "find a trade" thing hahahaha, but at least the RvR makes it not too pricey to get wrong and prettier to get right 🙂

See my football trading course for more on my mental approach like above.


12 comments on “Thursday 8 December”

    1. Yep, learning "there's always another trade" took me a very very long time. Keeping the old powder dry is a big part of trading. Sometimes you just have to realise that the correct trading decision is to sit on your hands. 🙂 You may be right about this game, it's one of those I will be curious to see as the stats do have some slightly mixed signals, but I certainly wont be risking money until I feel more sure, i.e. 0-2.

  1. I agree Tim the recent home form winning 4/6... 2 clean sheets in a row... (3 in 6 ) and 2.33 goals a game all look good. Then there is all the counter areas!
    As you say in book... look for reasons to say no rather than reasons to say yes ! Your right in book re will miss loads of trades but the % will be in favour in balance sheet at end if pick only the best ones!
    "Better safe than sorry" is what I have just taped onto my laptop !!!!

    1. hahaha, i used to have loads of post it notes like that! "Are you happy to lose money on this trade?" - That's a good one. If you can answer "YES" to that, you need to be involved! If not, just close the browser and put kettle on til the temptation runs out your system. I was easily tempted, I wasn't born with that trading mindset that a few lucky people have, so I had to overcome all the pitfalls and psychological issues (fear, greed, fear of missing out, anger, etc).

  2. I'm so glad I found this website, can't remember how, probably googled "football trading" or similar. But Tim, you are an excellent mentor and guide and your LTD book has really helped me learn how to think and act like a trader and not a gambler.

    Small stakes/liability for now but determined to replace the 9-5 one day!

    Thank you again for all your help!

  3. Just seen the score on Coca Cola game. You could have made a fortune if you ignored my advice Craig! Then again, if I had been home and laid em at 0-2 down, I could too! That's the price of a pop round a mate's house for a cuppa! haha

  4. Haha I know. I'm at centre parcs with the family so would have missed it anyway!!! Wouldn't have been able to exit! Better safe than sorry ! I seen the goal come in for 2 0 at half time and wondered if you had got on it ! Bogey team indeed but looking into the stats it could have went anyway at all ! 🙂

    I am 100% convinced the slow and steady advice from you will do me well. Battles and wars.... chose the battles well and you will fight on to win the war ! - I could have lost all my troops there !

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