Wednesday, 14 December
Crystal Palace versus Manchester United
Well considering they are away from home I think man United are too short here. Purely based on the goal statistics that is.
Not short enough to trade the current prices however if man United go 2-0 up I may look at a very cheap lay, particularly in the last 15 minutes when Crystal Palace score most of their goals.
Wigan versus Newcastle
I don't often do Away Lay The Draw, but I like the look of this one enough to do it from kick-off.
I would ideally like to watch the first 15 minutes before entering, away games can start slower when the home team is the weaker one, but I don't think I will be at home so I will probably just take 3.9 and let it run from the start.
West Ham versus Burnley
This is quite an odd game, but Burnley's away form is dismal scoring only 0.17 goals per game.
West Ham should slaughter them but I am not impressed by the goalscoring form enough to trade this from the off. I will keep a close eye on it however and I could be tempted to get straight in if I was watching it and West Ham were firing shot after shot as Burnley will concede goals here I think.
I would ideally like to be getting in when the odds hit three, that sounds like the best LTD trade execution to me, but if the game is electric and the draw price isn't coming down quickly then I may just dive in with some kind of trade during the match.
That's all for today as far as the UKFT morning updates go, but it does look like a day to keep an eye out for in play trading opportunities
thanks tim. learning more from each read of your excellent LTD book,especially the more I trade the more I realise the importance of a staking plan and even more so when to exit. just wondering if you get time you could put a couple of pointers of these in a blog,or if you've any to include it in a ebook. thanks again mate.
just on my way out to hospital but briefly:
stakes need calculating to work out what your loss will be at your exit if no goals. that figure I would say is best to be 1% or 2% of the trading bank for beginners, 3 to 5% four confident traders
exit strategy - traditionally the exit is 2.0.
thanks tim. hope you go on ok.
been away doing MY job,but been following your tips although could not trade do to technical problems(s**ty internet).sorry to hear about you getting hurt,hope you are better.
i would like to ask you about nott.forest game the stats look great especially they Always score at home and preston wins away are rare and weak.what do you think?
hi Karim, it's not an ideal pick where the home team should easily win, but of course they could. however I do think there is a likelihood of goals so I would not be against trading it as a LTD from kick-off, although I would probably wait until the draw price hits three, making it a halfprice trade
thanks tim for the support.
Great info . Your like a security blanket for us Tim and I'm onto my 9th trade. Profiting Profiting from 8 so all going well.
I also followed advice on the bonus Bagging and after 3 days I'm up 50 quid from the initial outlay.
Wondered your thoughts on the arb system same firm are offering for £97 to get their software to arb every day for a year.
Do you think it's a good option or are their easier routes to finding this info elsewhere in your experience.
ha ha, thanks, old musty and full of fleas, yes i can see the comparison :d
BB is great but actually the arb system is even better from what i have heard from quite a few readers. i havent had a chance to try it myself yet, dying to but never find the bloody time. I had plans for some really good trading e-books to get done over the silly season but my arm has put paid to that. Early next year...
Would love to look at in play trading more. I'm looking at games now and trying to find the trade.
Looked at Wigan newcastle tonight and thinking of leaving it 15m where I'm thinking it will still be 0 - 0 then LTD with my exit being in 60 mins exactly if still 0 0.
Ps- you should look into self publishing on Amazon.
One day i would actually like to write some trading books, more about psychology than methods, its such a massively overlooked area.
Dont look for trades look big gambles which have gone wrong for punters, like backing a home team heavily odds on only to see them concede a goal or two. those are beauties as the reply goal, if it comes, causes an over reaction drop in odds. cant type any more now, agony here! Will be putting some articles on the site about in play trading soon. good luck for tonight, or should i say good probabilities, 😀
I agree with craig your LTD book deserves to be on Amazon.
Never even thought of putting that on there to be honest! wouldnt know how but might look into it one day. have a good evening all