Wednesday 28th September
Very little of interest today but there is one trade.
This is the kind of borderline trade I would reject on some days, there are pros and cons but overall due to the price (mainly) I think I will trade this one.
The colour of the form card certainly looks peachy. The number of 1s on the left is a bit of a concern, although those are mainly against decent team, and a couple of strong results show they can score more sometimes.
The away team card shows they have a good defence which is another negative, but also they rarely score any goals, very rarely more than one.
Again, it looks good, could be better but definitely worth 3.8 which is the current price. This trade carries a greater than usual risk of 0-0 so I may have a small hedge bet to back 0-0 since the price is a healthy 10.
People often ask me about doing this and my normal answer is no, it makes very little sense usually and just eats up important green.
If we hedge our risks we make very little when we win, but lose the same (or more) when we lose, which can kill the "edge" of any method, so it's extremely rare that I even consider doing it.
But the price of 0-0 is so good, and the odds on 0-0 are quite high, so I will have a very small back bet there. I am not looking to cover my liability, trading the Betfair markets has to carry risk, but I will just hedge some off with a bet which I can green up if I am exiting my LTD trade at 0-0 later on.
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