Blog

Good old Bayern undid both me and their form card, until very late that is. 2-0 win, but all too late for LTDers. I did sneak a cheeky hedge by laying under 2.5 goals at the wonderful price of 1.02 and greened after the second goal, so not a bad day in the end at […]

Schalke game didn't seem as lively as I would have hoped at the start so I got in quite a bit later when still 0-0. Hoping for a goal before 60 minutes or I will exit for a small red Midtjtlland v Esbjerg Back draw - As I expected it's 65 minutes and still 0-0. […]

Well yesterday's Brazil game was a bit of a stonker in the end, finishing up 3-0 to the home team. It also had a rare bit of luck for some of you, or at least one of you anyway! It's nice when this happens, the first goal took 46 minutes to be scored but within […]

Well today went well. But I just thought I would give a few comments on why being selective is my chosen approach these days, and why in particular I was extra choosy today. Macclesfield - 3-1 - Obviously this was a green trade, and following my usual strategy of waiting for a second goal if […]

Well it's a miserable wet day so I have had a look at the large Betfair football shortlist I made from the coupon... Macclesfield v Woking This looks a good value trade at the current price around 4 to LTD. Good home form, annihilating everyone except well-ranked Lincoln. Goal stats are good, could be better, […]

Well after looking through a huge shortlist, I have decided to trade absolutely nothing today. It's been a long wait through the summer but the stats are very thin on all major EU league games, and having looked at some results, even when there are stats to go on, they are generally very unreliable as […]

Le Havre v Troyes - Very very tempted here at a lovely price of 4. Le Havre have a good home record against their opponents, but I think I am 51% in favour of leaving it alone just due to the short amount of stats available still so early in the season. Its one of […]

Varnamo v Angelholms - A nice priced trade at 4 to LTD. 6th plays bottom. Good form on both sides and good goal stats. Home team isn't as prolific at scoring as I would ideally like, but they score just about enough considering the away team concede a lot of goals. Just out of interest, […]

I popped to the shops and got stuck in traffic. Got home and saw it was still 0-0, just as I clicked to lay the draw, it changed to this... Annoying! but good to see the stats were bang on as far as likely scoring times were concerned. oh well, plenty more fish and all […]

Well it's early days and stats won't be too useful for a little while yet, but great to see some league games starting again, it's felt like a long wait this year for some reason. The Olympics should help avoid some of the frustration for a while longer, although there are still going to be […]

Well then! How's about that for ducking a bullet?! That would have been a very nasty losing trade. Just goes to show that these reasons for avoiding a trade are not just as important as finding winning ones, they are MORE important. A 70 year old stock market veteran trader once said much the same […]

Not certain whether I will do this or not, it could be overpriced anyway. But Molde v Start is 1-1 approaching HT. The stats speak for themselves: The one problem is the price. It's hovering around 3.75 just before HT, which to me seems high despite the stats. Ok I think a home win is […]

Well thanks to power cuts and dodgy internet all day today, I didn't do either of these. That slight element of doubt was enough to put me off. But looks like both turned out to be nice winning trades.

I MAY have just found a trade from one of the longest but worst football coupons I have ever had the need to trawl through! Perhaps more than one... Brazil Game - Santos v Ponte Preta Not as good as the odds suggest so I wont be in before KO. But I reckon if the […]

Atletico PR v America MG - Brazil game. This looks decent enough. The home scoring average is a little lower than I would ideally like (1.4 goals per game) but the horrific conceding stats of the away team make up for that and should help ensure the home team score at least 2 goals here, […]

I do hate this time of year, it's easy to get tempted into borderline trades as the boredom sets in while football takes its short break. But one of the most important lessons I learned about sports trading many moons ago now, is learning when NOT to trade. This is just as critical to success […]

Just a quick post as a couple of people asked me why the odds didn't move on that trade. As the stats suggested, Lahti scored, and not far off their exact statistical average for 1st goal scored. Nice. But the price didn't move! Well it did, but not much, and certainly nowhere near as much […]

Lahti v FC Inter (Finland). Stats are not amazing, but good enough for me, laying the draw at 4 now, 5 mins into game

Well yesterday was an interesting day. The first LTD pick was one of those nasty ones where a trader either takes it as a bog standard and fairly small loss immediately after the dog scored first, or wait it out a while in which case you could have taken a bigger loss, or if you […]

Sorry everyone. Had some personal troubles of late, and I am finally back and hopefully with a bang. Lots of sketches for methods and stuff I am going to publish over coming weeks and months. First time I have even looked at Betfair for a while now, here is what (little) interests me today..... Sirius […]